I have been having some dialogue with a FB friend. We are on opposite sides of the aisle but especially off-line we have constructive conversations. He asked me some questions and I banged out a long response so thought I would share.
Friend:
On a different
matter, who would Biden put on the supreme court and why won't he tell? Also,
would he pack the court? He seems to be riding the "moderate
democrat" position to win the white house ( I'm not a socialist, I beat
the socialists", but he also agreed to the Biden/Sanders manifesto which
sounds to me like Bernie Sanders' socialism philosophy. Also, he chose the co-author
of the green new deal to be his running mate at 78 years old. Is he moderate or
is he progressive? He is trying to ride two horses here. The media doesn't
care. As long as Biden wins, they are happy. I wonder if moderate democrats
will be happy if it turns out he was really a Bernie Sanders progressive?
TW:
Biden (he is only 77 btw 😁 and I would argue much more healthy than current potus but I digress) would nominate a partisan Democratic judge, just like
Trump has nominated partisan Republicans.
I will say Trump’s SCOTUS picks have been essentially conventional Republicans (i.e.
Romney etc. would have picked similar ones). His picks have been amplified since there are
now three of them including one that should have been an Obama pick. But like I said Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett
are not radical just very partisan. Both
parties are now gaming (although I will say Republican have done a better job)
the picks such that “moderation” as it existed has been lost (i.e. no more justices
that are going to be anywhere close to non-partisan and if we are not careful
we are soon going to be getting nominees straight out of law school so that
they can serve for 60 years for one partisan view). I would like to see 18 year staggered terms. It is not exactly clear to me how “packing”
the court by going to 11 justices would solve things for Dems since that would
still leave a 6-5 split at this point. I
am guessing Biden is avoiding a clear position as 1) it will be controversial
and at this point with a big lead there is no upside, 2) it is not a given what
exactly a 6-3 Republican court means, if they overturn Roe, ACA, and block immigration
reform then that is one thing if they are less radical then it would be another.
Re is he a moderate or a Berner? He is a politician he is
being ambivalent because that is what good politicians do so that he can retain
enough support of centrists and more lefty types to get some things done. Biden certainly has a long track record and
it is clearly centrist understanding the center moves over time. His instincts are centrist but he understands
much energy comes from the left (just like the right energizes the Republicans).
Folks like Obama, the Clintons, Harris really any mainstream
Dem are not all that far apart on policy it is a matter of degrees. Sanders/AOC they have more ideological
policies which get cherry picked by the mainstream folks that is how parties
work. For both parties not only energy
but innovative policy can come from the more ideological wings of the party. The problem with ideologues is their ideology
frequently is impractical, good politicians translate or cherry pick ideology
into a governable set of realities.
One thing re policy, I do believe the hypocrisy of the
Republicans on the deficits (they “cared” about it when Bill Clinton was in office
then lost all interest when W. Bush was in office, then “cared” about it with
Obama- remember the Tea Baggers-, then lost any interest when Trump came into
office) is finally going to come home to roost.
Until Ronald Reagan came into office both parties felt our
country’s budget had to be run like a personal checkbook (i.e. balanced). Reagan came into office increased defense
spending, cut taxes and created big deficits in the process. The supply side notion that tax cuts pay for
themselves was BS then and is BS now (if you can find empirical evidence to the
contrary let me know) but certainly has been an effective electoral strategy
because who does not want a tax cut?
Clinton balanced the budget without a single Republican vote to do so,
then the deficits blew up under W. Then
the Republicans forced fiscal constraint to the point of harming the recovery
in 2009-2010 under Obama, then again let Trump cut taxes and now spend without concern
for the deficit.
Now we know interest rates can remain very low while running
big deficits. Biden and the Dems
assuming they gain control of the Senate will likely initiate aggressive plans
to spend on infrastructure (including green programs), education and
healthcare. And why not? At its core
Biden’s plan is spend on those things most of which we badly need and re-coup
the part of the tax cuts given the wealthiest Americans. Whereas the budget scolds (myself included)
would have previously been nervous now we are like “let’s give it a try”. By the way in the process with Biden/Harris, we say lets avoid the erratic rhetoric on trade that is alienating our international friends,
lets come out with rational immigration policies that allow us to retain the
vigor and energy from immigrants without just throwing the borders open and most
of all lets do what we need to with PPE, testing, distancing and vaccines to
get past Covid. At that point I think
the economy will thrive and the markets along with them as we have much pent-up
demand and capital ready to be deployed and the markets do not like the erratic
governance currently emanating from the White House.
Ultimately though, folks spend far more time thinking they
disagree on policy when in reality it is personal style and character that
drives voter’s actual preferences. Why
would someone vote for Obama then turnaround and vote for Trump over Clinton? Obama and Clinton’s policies are not that
different but for whatever reasons some made that switch. The problem for Trump is now they are
switching back to Biden, whose policies resemble Obama/Clinton. Why? Well I would argue because Trump is an erratic
fraud and after almost four years, most folks have figured this out, while Biden for
all his aging drabness is not a freak. Biden
would lose against most Republicans this year but he is a good antidote to
Trump. Correspondingly I believe most
Dems would have beaten Trump in 2016 but Clinton was almost uniquely
susceptible to Trump.
(Btw regarding your question on media you say “the media does not care”, not sure what you
expect from “the media”. I have many thoughts on this but will leave
that to a “media” post or discussion.)
I assure you as a moderate Democrat I am not losing one iota
of sleep worrying that Biden is some sort of woke Squad member in
disguise. Understand I believe Trumpism
has papered over big issues for the Dems emanating from Jacobin lefty woke
types (many worse than AOC) and these problems will have to be addressed because
not only Republicans but us moderate Dems do not support their views on many
topics. The economic ignorance and cultural stridency amongst many of the Jacobin left is severe (cancel culture, anti-capitalism
etc.). Mark my word Biden will be
getting grief from his left as much as the right. soon enough. My Berner friends were severely agitated when
Biden beat Sanders just like they were in 2016 when Clinton did so and just
like their predecessors were in 1968 when Eugene McCarthy lost. But in 2020 Trump’s inability
to govern like an actual adult has brought them in line to vote him out instead
of stay home like many did in 2016.
If Trump had performed merely as a replacement level Potus
(shown empathy, exerted calm, embraced epidemiology instead of quackery) this
year instead of going off the rails on Covid/wanting to jail his opponents etc.
he might be ahead in the poles. At this
point he literally seems mental.
