Can the Dems Get To 60 Seats In the Senate

TW: A new poll in Kentucky has me thinking about the Senate races. The Dems have dreams of getting to 60 Senate seats which would allow Senate Dems to achieve cloture and greatly increase their operational control of Congress. Going from the current 51 which includes Lieberman to 60 would require another wave election like 2006. Recall though until the Mark Foley scandal blew up the first week of Oct 2006, the Dems while ascendent were not expected to gain control of the Senate or even necessarily the House. When a "wave" hits, the ascendent party suddenly takes almost all close races plus previously barely competitive races become tos-ups. You can go to Congressional Quarterly or Stu Rothenburg's site to get regular status reports but roughly the Dems situation is as follows:

They will likely not lose any Senate seats, Landrieu in LA is the only vulnerable seat but expected to hold.

Mark Warner is heavily favored for John Warner's open seat in VA
Tom Udall is favored for Pete Domenieci''s open seat in NM
Mark Udall (Tom's cousin) is favored for Wayne Allard's open seat in CO
Jeanne Sheehan leads incumbent John Sununu in NH
Mark Begich leads incumbent Ted Stevens (the crooked one) in AK

Those five would get the Dems to 56. The Dems are in tight races in 3 more to get to 59:
MN with Al Franken v. incumbent Norm Coleman
MS with Roger Musgrave v. incumbent Roger Wicker
NC with Kay Hagan v. incumbent Elizabeth Dole

So the Dems would have to pull a sweep just to get to 59 unless...the wave hit putting another 3 or 4 seats in play
KY with Bruce Hubbard v. incumbent Mitch McConnell
OR with Jeff Merkley v. incumbent Gordon Smith
ME with Tom Allen v. Susan Collins (Smith and Collins are decent Senators just in the wrong party)

"Dave" Palin had really helped the Congressional Republicans by energizing their base but she may no longer be enough. The KY result is only one poll but if legit these races are correlated, if McConnell is truly struggling then several other Republicans will be as well. All the tight races get really interesting for the Dems and those marginally competitive races like KY, OR, and ME become competitive. We still have five weeks though many things can change either way.

From Taegen Goodard:
"A new Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll finds Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in a dead heat with challenger Bruce Lunsford (D), 41% to 41%, among likely voters...McConnell does inch ahead 45% to 44% [if leaners included]. Knocking off McConnell would dramatically help Democrats in reaching 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.

Said Larry Sabato: "If Lunsford is actually doing this well, its got to be because the public is so upset by the economic meltdown and may be blaming the legislative leaders. If this is true, Democrats may win a lot more seats in both the House and the Senate than people are predicting."