Monday, September 29, 2008

The House Vote Was Populism Run Amok

TW: This is the roll call of the vote by rep
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2008/roll674.xml

TW: The vote was what happens when populism gets ahead of responsibility. I understand Main Street may not understand the bill's importance and need but their elected official must act regardless. This is not about the stock market, it is about credit markets, if the credit markets fry then the economy will follow to a place you do not want to see. The 30-day TBill rate is down to 0.03% or essentially zero. This is the institutional equivalent of putting one's money in the mattress. The commerical banks previously relatively stable were the biggest losers today as people are now wondering if their cash is really safe.

The timing of this is obviously horrible with every (non-retiring) House member facing re-election in just over a month. Wonder why the Senate is not the problem? Only a third of the seats are facing re-election and of those maybe a dozen are close enough for the Senator to worry about having to answer for the vote in November. I understand those House members in competitive districts facing popular dissent especially if faced with an opponent taking the "populist" position. Nate Silver at 538 threw up these stats:

"Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211.By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against."

TW: Ultimately 67% of the Republicans voted against while 40% of the Democrats voted against the bill.

There were two other groups of House members who were not merely vulnerable candidates covering their respective electoral asses. The radicals (i.e. Kucinich Dem OH or Paul Rep TX) who think the best solution is to burn the system down and start over. And the Republican cynical ideologues like Mike Pence Rep IN with an agenda to create crusade along with their father figure, Newt Gingrich. These Republicans bear not exclusive but disproportionate responsibility for this irresponsible action.

There are responsible Republicans. Senator Judd Gregg Rep NH stood up on CNBC with another adult, Chris Dodd Dem CT, and took the mature approach while outlining why this deal matters not for Wall Street but for Main Street.http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=872214272

John McCain just made a statement suggesting a start over in negotiations (what!!) and claiming Barack Obama "infused partisanship into the negotiations". That is why we have a problem. I have not heard Obama's statement if he has made one. I will judge it solely on how LITTLE partisanship he injects into the statement.http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=872188977

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