Pakistan a Mess That Is Getting Messier

TW: Andrew Bacevich is a very good national security pundit who writes for the LA Times amongst others. Pakistan is our next emerging international flash point. A potentially very bright flash point given Pakistan nuclear armed status. Pakistan has a population of 170MM growing by 10K/day, barely navigable terrain, deep ethnic divisions, an internal security organization with likely more ties to the Taliban than to our CIA and a huge rivalry with India. It is the Afghanistan or Iraq mess squared, maybe cubed.

The topic was broached briefly in the first debate, Obama if anything is more bellicose than McCain relative to Pakistan. Regardless the next President will have his hands full. I would take any media reporting on our activities inside Pakistan with a grain of salt. Perhaps we and the Pakistanis have been exchanging fire. More likely our special forces have been operating inside Pakistan for years including pre-9/11. Both sides have an interest in keeping what is "really going-on" out of the public eye. I disagree with Bacevich in that Bush is just now opening this front, what is just now starting is this front being discussed more openly in public.

From Bacevich:
"To the existing fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq, [Bush] is adding a third: Pakistan...Musharraf was not only a dictator, he was incompetent...Pakistan has become the next problem that the president intends to solve through the application of armed force. Without congressional authorization and almost entirely shielded from public view, a new war has begun...The real aim of these raids is to goad Pakistan into action...

The problem with this strategy of goading is twofold. First, U.S. expectations probably exceed Pakistani capabilities: Pakistan's army is large but not notably effective, especially as a counterinsurgent force. Second, Pakistani national security priorities differ from our own. Traditionally, Pakistani generals like Kayani worry more about India than the Taliban. In short, when it comes to doing our bidding, Pakistan's army can't and won't. Rather than prodding Pakistan to act, the Pentagon over the next several months could again find itself starting something that it cannot finish...
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-bacevich27-2008sep27,0,4559985.story