TW: Nate Silver at 538 questions the credibility of the Intrade Presidential "betting" contracts. He outlines how it is an outlier relative to other services and likely being manipulated by a small group of traders. This is only relevant in that Intrade is typically the service mentioned in the MSM when they focus on "betting" lines for the race. As I have mentioned before I would just follow Silver's numbers and not waste time with any other polling data.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html
4 comments:
I explain here how the observed price discrepancy may actually be explainable by the difference in currency (dollars vs. pounds) of the two markets, and not actually an arbitrage opportunity after all.
Isn't the Univ. of Iowa the best trading market for the elections?
I am not sure which one is best. Intrade is easier to access and to me if it has a Republican bias I do not really care as it only gives some realtime feel for movement one direction or the other. They have that electoral college thing going. I figure there is no way than can keep that liquid or deep enough by state to really be useful.
Silver is the guy I rely on for where the election really rests.
also Intrade was totally in the tank for Obama during the primaries
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