Lets Talk 2012

TW: With Obama pulling away in the polls, the punditry is rushing to write pre-mortems on the McCain campaign and start speculation for '12 because, well, actually writing about governing for at least a few months would be so tedious. You will see NO pre-mortems on this blog as we will not count our eggs before they hatch even if Obama goes up by 20%. I will do my best to avoid posting on what will inevitably be a bloody, ferocious internal Republican fight over the soul of their party (e.g. social conservative firebrands v. anti-tax firebrands v. small government/pro-business) until after the election and even then not too much. But the piece below speaks to the growing speculation on the future of the Fembot. As you can imagine the only thing that makes me more nauseous than Palin as VP would be Palin as P.

From the Economist:
"...Palin thinks Mr McCain is undermining her campaign for the vice-presidency and is keeping her eye on 2012. The argument...is as follows: she spends the next four years learning about current events; re-emerges buoyed by a wave of enthusiasm and money from the conservative base; vastly exceeds the low expectations set by the media; and campaigns as a Washington outsider (but with general election experience), winning over voters who are sick of Barack's Big Government.

...Mark me down for this: she'll run but she won't get anywhere...think about the Republican primary. The heat of the election lends itself to an us-vs-them, you're-in-or-you're-out mentality. And there is surely a core of Palin true believers. But most of the primary voters are going to consider their options, and though Mrs Palin is a practiced attack dog, that won't work in a primary (it's not even working in the general election). The Republican party may be in disarray, but that doesn't mean they can't find half a dozen reasonable people to put on stage. Is she going to say that Mitt Romney is un-American? That Bobby Jindal is part of an old-boys club? Tim Pawlenty, elitist? She'd have to make an affirmative case for her candidacy instead of against anyone else's, and she's not getting much practice with that at the moment.
It seems that the candidate best positioned to prosper from Mrs Palin's turn this time out is actually Mike Huckabee. He built a huge base of grassroots support during his primary run, but his campaign was handicapped by the fact that it was never taken seriously. Republican voters were anxious to settle on a candidate so they could get started on fighting Hillary or Obama (this makes Mr McCain a bit like John Kerry in 2004). The media assumed that the candidate would have to be someone with more foreign-policy experience or expertise than an Arkansas governor. And the scuttlebutt was that Republican Party bigwigs didn't want Mr Huckabee, because he was an outsider. But if Mrs Palin is accepted as a credible candidate, then so is Mr Huckabee. Of course he isn't very sexy, so he's not going to be anyone's "heartthrob" or "honey". But he is more articulate and more gracious than Mrs Palin, and there isn't a hint of scandal or indiscretion about him. If the Republicans are casting around for a non-elitist Washington outsider who can speak credibly about economic issues and keep the base enthused, and the international-affairs component isn't a dealbreaker, then Mr Huckabee is a better candidate."

TW: One thing to remember with Huckabee is that he both a social populist AND an economic populist he does not go over well with the anti-tax, really small government crowd. But all of this is ultimately worthless we are in 2008 we have at least say 12 months to go before the serious speculation emerges.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2008/10/palin_2012_revisited.cfm

TW: Newsweek is already polling '12...From Newsweek:

"If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?
Mitt Romney 35%

Mike Huckabee 26%

Sarah Palin 20%"