TW: This article by Joe Klein (Time) was written 10/2, I answered the same day but am setting the post for 10/13 to give myself a chance to look foolish should any of them materialize between then and now. Klein outlines possible themes which would turn the election momentum back toward McCain (recall on 10/2 Obama was up roughly 6-7%)
From Klein (and TW)
"Several Republicans--Reagan Administration sorts--have said to me in the past few days, "It's over. McCain blew it." I dunno. We have a month left--and all sorts of things can happen. Here's a list of some of them, in order of likelihood: TW: first of all I think it is unfair to ever say this election was ever McCain's to "blow", he was swimming upstream all year against currents that have only gotten more and more extreme.
1. McCain finds a gut-bucket issue that works--my personal suspicion is that it will be immigration demagoguery, even though he wrote the comprehensive bill. Obama's position in favor of drivers licenses for illegal immigrants is an area of legitimate disagreement between the candidates and an obvious target. TW: Cannot see it, McCain is not positioned to be a populist on immigration even if he were I believe he would lose more Latino votes than gain fearful "native" votes.
2.Osama Bin Laden weighs in: He did it last time, releasing a tape hammering Bush on the last weekend of the campaign. The CIA assessment was that bin Laden wanted Bush--whose policies had brought many new recruits--reelected. This time, you could see Osama "endorsing" Obama...TW: Osama is always a wild card, certainly what is good for the US (e.g. getting rid of Bush or putting in Obama) is what he will try to prevent. A significant attack changes everything in terms of mood and focus. If the US somehow gets Osama in the next month that would immediately even with the economic crisis change the narrative.
3. McCain does better in the next two debates--one of them is a town meeting, his favorite format. Another possible opportunity for McCain is that the first debate was watched by a mere 50 million, probably because it was held on Friday night. The town hall debate audience will be much larger, I suspect, giving McCain a second chance to make first impressions. TW: Doubt it, I think the impact of the debates recedes geometrically from the first to the last, people pay less not more atttention, minds are made up, Obama can just play it very cool.
4. Obama screws up somehow--yeah, yeah, highly unlikely. But not impossible. After all, he did make the
"cling to religion and guns" comment. More likely, will be a revisitation of a past screwup--Jeremiah Wright inserts his humble presence into the campaign. Some youthful political indiscretion is unearthed. TW: Always possible although after two years I would be quite surprised if something new came up (the Clintons were not timid vetters). As I have posted previously I think Wright will re-appear but his impact will be muted (assuming they do not find a tape of Obama in a direct inflammatory interaction with him).
5. The economic issue recedes and national security comes to the fore. Iraq blows up again (the Shi'ites diss the Sunni Awakening), Pakistan disintegrates and the disposition of the nukes is unclear--and then there's always the not-so-unthinkable...another terrorist strike. (Although given McCain's erratic behavior in the past month, I'm not so sure this would be an advantage for him.) TW: This is very similiar to point 2 above. But Iraq or even Pakistan "blowing up" probably hurts McCain more than Obama. Iran would be a more likely tricky situation if say Israel attacked the nuclear facilities. If Russia decides to invade Ukraine, then yes McCain gains but I do not think that will happen.
TW: What I think this piece demonstrates is the challenge McCain faces a month before the election. True gamechanges become more difficult with every passing day
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/10/game_changers.html
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