TW: I would not rate Norris up there with Nate Silver in terms of forecasting prowess, but he has been a helluva alot more right than 90% of the economists on this financial crisis. Unfortunately he finds the economists projections that this recession will ease by Q2 next year as unconvincing. I agree.
From Floyd Norris at NYT:
"...A year ago, the combined wisdom of the economists was that there was a one-third chance of any recession arriving. It was not until March that this group thought a recession was more likely than not...In July, when the third quarter was under way, just 5 of 53 thought that would be a negative quarter. The government’s first estimate for that quarter is a negative 0.3 percent, and there is a good chance that will be revised lower. Only 16 thought the fourth quarter would be negative. Now all but 3 expect it to be down.
The history of most forecasts is that they are overoptimistic. Economists as a group miss the start of nearly every recession, and they see the end before it actually comes.
The most interesting data that came out today was the sharp fall in export volumes in October. This data can have one-month gyrations, but if that continues it will be another indication that the worldwide recession is on."
http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/13/they-missed-the-start-now-they-see-the-end/
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