Monday, November 3, 2008

A More Optimistic View Of The Market

TW: Our guy Floyd Norris takes a more sanguine view of the recent market than some. It is treacherous out there regardless.

From Norris/NYT:

"October was the worst month for the Standard & Poor’s index of 500 stocks in 21 years — since the 1987 stock market crash...As befits such a wild month, it was the most volatile in the 80-year history of the S.& P. 500. The huge gains of the final week were reminiscent of the sharp recoveries from bear market lows in 1974 and 1982. Both of those moves came while the economy was mired in recession, as it almost certainly is now.

If Monday’s stock market lows prove to be the low prices for this cycle, the bear market will have ended with the S.& P. 500 down 46 percent from the peak it reached in October 2007.
That would make the bear market almost, but not quite, as bad as the 1973-74 bear market, which ended with the index down 48 percent. In the 2000-2 bear market, the fall was 49 percent...Remarkably, the American market was one of the calmer markets during the month.

Such wild volatility may be an indication that a bottom was reached...Or the wild moves could just show how baffled investors are by a series of events unlike any they can remember."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/01/business/01chart.html

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