Egypt Lets Hope It Does Not Blow

TW: Egypt is one of those places that stays relatively calm but why is never clear. It is a dictatorship (presumably one of the reasons it is relatively calm), it has increasing Islamic ferment, it is desperately poor yet has an thin upper crust of wealthy elites and its population continues to explode amidst a very small geography of livable land.

Since the transition from British colonization to the relatively secular but highly autocratic rule of Nassar, Sadat and Mubarek, Egypt has remained a pillar of relative stability and for the past 35 years a key ally of the U.S. As a country of 80 million, sitting astride the Suez Canal and providing the most moderate voice amongst the Arabs, they have been crucial. I have met a few Egyptians both here and in Cairo over the years, they have all been great folks.

But the very concerning thing about Barnett's piece is that he frames the issues and risks yet presents no optimistic scenario. Barnett's usual best attribute is finding upsides (even with situations like Iran, Russia etc.), but not in this case, not good.

From Tom Barnett:
"Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarek's "emergency rule" is deep into its third decade, with modernizing son Gamal teed up as the pharaoh-in-waiting. While Gamal's efforts to open up Egypt's state-heavy economy have progressed nicely the past few years, so has Mubarek the Elder's repression of all political opponents, yielding the Arab world's most ardent impression of the Chinese model of development...

At 83, Hosni Mubarek is an unhealthy dictator who's achieved a stranglehold on virtually every aspect of Egyptian life, creating an immense undercurrent of popular resentment. While Washington focuses on Iran's reach for nukes and its upcoming presidential election, Egypt is more likely to be plunged into domestic political crisis on President-Elect Barack Obama's watch...

Since Cairo recognized Israel's right to exist in 1979, Washington has poured more than $50 billion into the regime's coffers, with more than half coming in military aid. As Israel remains diplomatically isolated and strategically vulnerable in the region, it seems that America has bought Egypt's stability and little else...

if Gamal [Mubarek, Hosni's son] fails the succession test, our incoming president will likely face the choice of allowing a military dictatorship to emerge or risk the country's descent into radicalization."
http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2008/dec/28/four-scary-words-egypt-after-hosni-mubarek/