TW: Dennis Ross is a Democratic diplomat from the Clinton years, he is a smart effective diplomat. But his piece on Iran represents kicking the ball down the field without addressing the realities or in other words exactly what the US and especially everyone else (France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia) have been doing for the past five years. Engaging Iran as Obama has suggested is a crucial component of addressing Iranian nuclear ambitions but it does not address the fundamental question everyone has avoided, will the West (and China/Russia) use military force to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon capability.
My opinions are unequivocally no we are not willing to use force and given that I have little doubt that Iran intends to obtain nuclear weapons then the West is bluffing and the Iranians know it.
Ross proposes more intense economic sanctions, perhaps Obama/HRC can do what the Bush adminstration could not, get economic sanctions with real teeth. I am highly skeptical. Even if we were to create a regime of very tough economic sanctions I strongly doubt they would achieve the goal of precluding Iran's development of a nuclear capability. Hence the need to face up to the question, would the US sanction military action?
From Ross and Newsweek:
"...Iran has continued to pursue nuclear weapons because the Bush administration hasn't applied enough pressure—or offered Iran enough rewards for reversing course. The U.N. sanctions adopted in the past three years primarily target Iran's nuclear and missile industries, not the broader economy. Hitting the economy more directly would force the mullahs to make a choice. Iran has profound economic vulnerabilities: it imports 43 percent of its gas. Its oil and natural-gas industries—the government's key source of revenue, which it uses to buy off its population—desperately require new investment and technology. Smart sanctions would force Iran's leaders to see the high costs of not changing their behavior.
The way to achieve such pressure is to focus less on the United Nations and more on getting the Europeans, Japanese, Chinese and Saudis to cooperate. The more Washington shows it's willing to engage Iran directly, the more these other parties, will feel comfortable ratcheting up the pressure. Europeans have also complained that if they reduce their business with Iran, the Chinese will pick up the slack. But having the Chinese onboard will allay that fear.
Sharp sticks, of course, must be balanced by appetizing carrots. We need to offer political, economic and security benefits to Tehran, on the condition that Iran change its behavior not just on nukes but on terrorism as well. Sticks will show Iran what it stands to lose by going nuclear; carrots will show its leaders what they would gain by moderating their behavior. Smart statecraft involves wielding them together. It's needed now to avoid two terrible outcomes: living with a nuclear Iran, or acting militarily to try to prevent it."
http://www.newsweek.com/id/171256
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