Friday, January 30, 2009

Is the Cup Half Empty Or Half Full?

Click on image to enlarge (chart from Calculated Risk)

TW: This chart normalizes the employment data to reflect our growing population. When the headlines speak of "record" unemployment or jobless claims etc. they are misleading in that our population continues to grow relatively rapidly therefore absolute number comparisons become outdated. The other problem btw is that many economic stats only go back twenty, thirty or forty years so "all-time" records are really just "all-time since they started tracking the stat".

Regardless, the charts can either be cause for hope or concern. On the hopeful side the current numbers are much more akin to the relatively mild '00-'01 and '90-'91 as opposed to the much rougher '81-'83, '73-'74 recessions much less what the Great Depression numbers would have looked like.

On the concerning side, if the current numbers should continue their path upward towards the earlier recessions or worse then the pain felt to date is merely the prelude to much greater angst...

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