A Look Back To a 12/30/08 Post: Playing Games With the Stimulus

TW: I thought this post worth a repeat given how the stimulus plan was bandied about over the weekend.

From 12/30/08
TW: Nate Silver looks at a little game theory to assess what the Republicans will likely do relative to the Obama economic plan. Basically from a political standpoint, if the economy is demonstrably stronger by the 2010 mid-terms, then regardless of whether the Republicans support the plan or not, the Dems will be positioned to build on their recent electoral strength. Therefore, the Republicans can strongly oppose the plan knowing that if it fails they will be better positioned to pick up the political benefit.

Things are never quite so simple but the gist of what Silver says appears accurate to me. We will hear a great deal of huffing and puffing about Keynes, stimulus, tax cuts and free markets but at the end a simple cynical political calculus will rule. Btw, this will be one vote where not having 60 Senators will help the Dems. At least one and probably three or four GOP Senators will be needed to achieve cloture in the Senate. Some level of GOP support will be required.

From Silver:
"...let's say that the economy still sucks in 2010 -- which, frankly, is a pretty good bet. That's going to work much, much better for you if you've voted against the stimulus. Not only can you pin the blame on the donkeys, but you can campaign on tax cutting and fiscal responsibility -- the stimulus will "prove", once and for all, the wisdom of conservative economic principles.

And then think about this: the Democrats are going to be trying to spend $800 billion in taxpayer dollars as quickly as they can possibly get away with it. Somewhere along the way, they're going to wind up funding a Woodstock Museum or a Bridge to Nowhere. Somewhere along the way, an enterprising contractor is going to embezzle a bunch of stimulus money, or cook up some kind of pay-to-play scheme. Maybe if you're really lucky, this will happen in your District. Better to keep the whole thing at arm's-length and make sure that Democrats get the blame for that.

So it seems to me that your risks and rewards are pretty asymmetrical. The public loves Obama, whereas that (R) beside your name is still causing you problems, especially when every Newt and Bobby and Sarah out there is perfectly happy to throw you under the bus. Fact is, you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt. If the stimulus package is seen as a success, you aren't going to get an ounce of credit for it. But if it's seen as a failure, you'd better make damned sure that you've distanced yourself from it.Maybe you can go through the motions of soliciting a compromise -- all the better that way to say I-told-you-so later on. But do you actually want a compromise? I think not. Better to let the Democrats be careful what they wish for, and make sure that they get it."
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/you-are-republican-socratic-dialogue-on.html