"Shameless Hucksters"

TW: One of the most naive things I ever hear are folks saying, "if only the media would stop talking about 'declining house prices', 'bad economy', 'falling stock market' ". What folks miss are the VERY powerful PR forces puffing up those markets when they are doing well. Those efforts are the ones folks should be concerned about. PR is a poorly understood dynamic throughout society not only relative to real estate etc. NEVER trust 90% of the talking heads they have agendas much less trust industry spokesmen who are shameless hucksters.

From Barry Ritholz at the Big Picture Blog:

"Former NAR Economist David Lereah is a Jackass

By Barry Ritholtz - January 6th, 2009, 6:45AM
Alternative Title: David Lereah: Even More Full of Shit Than Previously Believed

Of all the various parties who contributed to the boom and bust in housing and credit, none have escaped more unscathed than the National Association of Realtors, and their former Baghdad-Bob-in-Chief, David Lereah.

The NAR turned a blind eye to fraud amongst realtors in terms of referrals to corrupt appraisers and mortgage brokers. They constantly cheerleaded prices, despite evidence to the contrary. For 3 years, they have been forecasting 2nd half price recoveries, dissuading realism amongst home sellers. They continually spun data, presented misleading commentary, and otherwise engaged in behavior that could only be characterized as sleazy.

I find EVERYTHING out of the NAR to be suspect, tainted and generally worthless. The NAR Housing Affordability Index is essentially worthless; from 1989 - 2009, the NAR showed housing as “Unaffordable” for just one month.

If you have any doubts as to whether or not the NAR are a bunch of shameless, lying hucksters who deserve to have glass catheters inserted in their urethas then shattered, consider this: Working for realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Not anymore.

By Donna Rosato
As chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, David Lereah was famously optimistic. Now a private consultant, he’s abandoned what he calls the “positive spin.”

Q: Were you wrong to be so bullish?

A: I worked for an association promoting housing, and it was my job to represent their interests. If you look at my actual forecasts, the numbers were right inline with most forecasts. The difference was that I put a positive spin on it It was easy to do during boom times, harder when times weren’t good. I never thought the whole national real estate market would burst.

Q: The NAR’s latest forecast calls for a slight increase in home prices next year. Thoughts?

A: My views are quite different now. I’m pretty bearish and have been for the past year and a half. Home prices will continue to drop. I think we’ll see a very modest recovery in sales activity in 2009. But we’ve still got excess inventories, a bad economy and a credit crunch that will push prices down further, another 5% to 10% more. It’ll take a long time to get backto the peak prices we saw in many markets.

Q: Any regrets?

A: I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing abouthousing having a good future. I was wrong. I have to take responsibility for that."