Obama's Popularity Will Wane

From Taegen Goddard:
"It's eerie -- I read the news from the Beltway, and there's this disconnect with the polls from the Midwest that I see all around me."
-- Pollster Ann Seltzer, quoted by Politico, on how President Obama is still very popular around the country despite the chatter among political insiders in Washington, D.C.

TW: The notion that DC is a bubble relative to the rest of the country is about as old a cliche as there is. I would be cautious though as I believe the "beltway" does frequently serve as a leading indicator although not necessarily for good or useful reasons. The "beltway" focuses so much on process that actual substance gets lost in the miasma.

The stimulus bill can be an example. The bill started out as a $800 billion bill with about 65% spending and 35% taxes, went to $900+ with maybe 63% spending/37% tax cuts, and ended up as a$800 bill with 65% spending etc. Or in other words, much ado about nothing.

On the other hand, the Republicans started putting dings into Obama. Those dings have not drawn blood yet and Obama still shows the ability to hammer some of them back out by hitting the road (something W. Bush never was able to do well). But they are a start for the Republicans. The Republicans are testing themes (i.e. fighting "big" government, tax cuts tax cuts, tax cuts, the Dems are socialists etc.). Their big broad theme is to try to make Obama appear as naive or immature politically. That will be a tougher one but would be destructive if it ever took hold.

Obama's approval numbers from January will never be repeated barring a new major crisis. The question will be whether Obama can take the dings but plow forward because the reason the gap exists between the DC process miasma and the hinterlands is that the hinterlands need progress and ultimately do not have the time or inclination to wallow in process.