Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Pakistan the Challenge For Which No Answer Exists

From WaPo Interview with David Kilcullen*:
"Q: What is the real central front in the war on terror?
Ans: Pakistan. Hands down. No doubt.

Q: Why?
Ans: Pakistan is 173 million people, 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than the U.S. Army, and al-Qaeda headquarters sitting right there in the two-thirds of the country that the government doesn't control. The Pakistani military and police and intelligence service don't follow the civilian government; they are essentially a rogue state within a state. We're now reaching the point where within one to six months we could see the collapse of the Pakistani state, also because of the global financial crisis, which just exacerbates all these problems. . . . The collapse of Pakistan, al-Qaeda acquiring nuclear weapons, an extremist takeover -- that would dwarf everything we've seen in the war on terror today."


TW: Many allude to the instability and risk associated with Pakistan. As Kilcullen mentions, it is huge, nuclear-armed, and governed loosely. It is also riven by tribalism and generally consider India its primary enemy far more so than any other potential threat. So many fear a blow up with really interesting consequences. I really do not have any suggestions on this one. The only good news is that I do not think any countries would benefit from a blow-up so they are presumably not stirring the pot as is often the case (i.e. note India did not retaliate for Mumbai bombing, Iran hardly wants a Taliban Sunni group at the head of 175MM neighbors etc.).

*Kilcullen is an Aussie counter-insurgency expert who was heavily engaged in developing the US counter-insurgency effort known as the "surge".
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/19/AR2009031903038_pf.html

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