TW: These anecdotal bits are frequently interesting if possibly apocryphal. These seem logical. A fundamental question remains whether the surge has created the circumstances by which Iraq can evolve in a zig-zag fashion towards some form of civilized governance or merely the surge has put a lid on a witch's brew that will explode once the U.S. troop presence alleviates. I do not know although I suspect it will be closer to the latter.
Regardless we are leaving, a good thing. Things will be messy but the factions there will have an interest in maintaining positive relations with the U.S. The Kurds most of all, the Shiites perhaps the least but at the end of the day I do not believe they want to become too beholden to the Iranians. We will likely be fielding requests from the Iraqi factions for more commitments than Obama or any other rational POTUS will accept.
From Jim Fallows at the Atlantic:
"Flew from XXX to XXX seated next to a career Army sgt headed to Iraq after R&R on 3rd tour.
Gratifying to me was his saying that the troops really do feel appreciated and supported by the public, and can distinguish criticism of the war from criticism of the men and women in uniform (unlike in Vietnam days). None of the rest was gratifying at all:
• Surge has "worked" because Iraqis who just want to start killing one another again are biding their time. Après nous, le deluge.
• No one could comprehend the waste of money in US expenditures in Iraq.
• IEDs have become infinitely more sophisticated, very high tech now, and can penetrate all but one type of US vehicle. Suicide bombers can penetrate anything they want.
• When an IED blows up a vehicle in a convoy, and you are two vehicles away in the same convoy, the force of the explosion is so violent you are thrown against the interior of your vehicle, you are temporarily deafened, etc.
• Troop morale is high because they sense they are going home, most of them. But there is no way US can be out in five years or even ten without leaving too much equipment behind."
http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/04/seatmates_on_a_plane.php
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