TW: Have mentioned before, today's Republicans remind me of 1970's and 80's Democrats who spent twenty years pining for the good, old FDR days even though times and events had moved on. Part of their evolutionary process was shooting their own moderates as independents gravitated to the Republicans leaving the primaries open for the more lefty folks.
The Republicans may go through some of the same again in 2010 (certainly 2008 had some of this as well). It is part of the cleansing process by which a party eats it own moderates, then loses more general elections before figuring out like all others that moderation usually wins. If Arlen Specter runs against a Dem in PA he will likely although not certainly win, if Pat Toomey runs against the same Dem he will almost certainly lose. Yet, Pat Toomey may win the Republican primary in 2010.
Good for us Dems, not so much for the Republicans although as I said it is part of the process by which the ideologues will lose their grip on the party. Pat Toomey would fair no better than Rick Santorum did in 2006 leaving the Republicans to either suck on their thumbs or start listening to the David Frum's of their party.
From Economist:
"AFTER flirting with the decision for months, Pat Toomey, a former congressman who has spent four years at the helm of a group that funds conservative challengers to moderate Republicans, is running against Arlen Specter.
The senior senator from Pennsylvania, one of three Republicans who voted for Barack Obama's stimulus package, has tried to stave off a challenge by siding against Democrats on labour legislation, introducing a flat tax reform, and flirting with home-school activists over a constitutional amendment to protect their rights. No dice. In a March poll Mr Specter only scored 27% of the Pennsylvania Republican primary vote. No incumbent senator can avoid attracting some sharks with numbers like that.
The importance of primary battles can be overblown, but this one is as meaningful to Republicans as Joe Lieberman's unsuccessful quest to win his party's nomination in 2006 was for Democrats. Mr Specter defeated Mr Toomey in a 2004 primary because of moderate voters, more than 100,000 of whom have since become Democrats and independents. If the Republican base stays on its current course it will deal the senator a humiliating defeat. Good for Republicans who think the party lost to Barack Obama because it wasn't conservative enough; bad for Republicans who want to recover in the liberal northeast."
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2009/04/fin_de_specter.cfm
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