I would add if the Republicans are smart (an admittedly dubious outcome) they will lie low. They have two plays- the high road understanding fighting a female and/or Hispanic nominee is ultimately a non-winner. Or the low road, obstruction in an ultimately unsuccessful effort to push Obama towards a more conservative nominee. While the latter might help with contributions from their base, it would only cement the Republicans as the obstructionists and further alienate the party with two constituencies they must do better with should they wish to actually start winning more elections.
The Souter slot is after all a hold for the progressives as will be the eventual replacements for Ginsberg and Stevens when they retire as they likely will over the next couple of years. Should part of the conservative bloc retire (Thomas, Scalia, Alito, Roberts, Kennedy) then all bets are off, the process will be bloody.
Conservatives care first about nominating those with well defined and strict conservative judicial tendencies (e.g. abortion, prayer, tough on crime, property rights, comfort with torture may be an emerging need btw etc.). Dems want progressive justices but worry far more about diversity for better or worse.
Should there be more than one woman on the court? Absolutely. Is it time for a Hispanic? Absolutely. But the Dems must be careful to avoid the blatant and potentially divisive pandering to interest groups which frequently characterize their nominations. Part of this is just proper handling of the nominee, i.e. regardless of the nominee's demographic, focus on the qualifications. But there is a real risk unless Obama and his folks are very adept that the Dem interest groups will fall into bickering with each other about getting their preferred demographic into the slot.
Two things should mitigate the bickering this time, one Ginsburg and Stevens will almost certainly retire within the near future providing two more slots. The second more Machiavellian reason is that fighting a well-qualified the next Hispanic/Asian and/or female should be very difficult for the Republicans. Challenging the second or third far less so. If Obama is smart he will keep some demographic chits in his pocket in case a truly pivotal nomination becomes available.
From Chris Cilizza at WaPo:
"...the national Republican party finds itself in a state of flux -- caught between an establishment wing who is seeking to re-brand it to make it more attractive to independents and a conservative base that wants a return to the roots.
Will President Obama's next nominee to the Court help unite the Republican party to oppose a common adversary or further expose the rifts that divide it?
Most party strategists we spoke to in the wake of the Souter announcement argued the former scenario is more likely...
...Another senior Republican strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly said that a Supreme Court fight will be good for fundraising -- particularly among low-dollar donors who feel passionately about judges (and judicial activism).
...Recent history suggests a disconnect between the Senate's generally open-minded approach to nominees and the party base's more ideological and confrontational stance -- and it is worth watching how that potential dissonance plays out.
...With the further elevation of conservative voices within the party -- hello Rush Limbaugh! -- it's not difficult to see a further fracturing of the GOP if Obama picks a Supreme Court nominee with whom the base is deeply unhappy but the establishment wing of the party (including a majority of Republican senators) believe is acceptable.
...A split within the GOP on the nomination, which could feature movement conservatives like Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford on one side and establishment figures like former governor Mitt Romney (Mass.) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty on the other, would be something close to an unmitigated disaster for a party trying to united behind a few core principles to prepare for the 2010 midterm elections and the 2012 presidential fight."
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/republican-party/souter-retirement-republican-o.html?wprss=thefix
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