TW: A question from a reader:
"I’ve been thinking ( I know that’s scary) that people are so stupid when it comes to politics.. The same people who didn’t vote for Specter before are now going to vote for him just b/c he switched parties.. what does that say about the people who blindly follow party affiliation.. I would love to see there be no party and everyone be an Independent.."
TW: While I agree with the sentiment I disagree with the conclusion. I agree the folks who shift parties are generally even more snaky than the average politician. Here is a quote re Specter from Joe Klein at Time:
"...These people [TW: he was talking about Souter and Gates] are not prima donnas. (As opposed to, say, Arlen Specter, who used to be notorious for requiring the foreign service to provide him with a squash court and partner whenever he traveled overseas.)
TW: Folks like that, and I have known some, make me ill. And Specter's performance on Meet the Press was shaky, he will fail if he ends up as a tweener neither Republican nor Democrat. He needs to clearly establish himself as a Dem albeit a moderate/conservative one. Otherwise he will get a Dem primary challenger and he might lose.
As for the parties and voters. Here is the math in Pennsylvania in very rough terms
Overall PA voting groups:
20% hard core conservatives who will not vote for a moderate like Specter
15% moderate Republicans
40% Democrats
25% Independents
PA's primaries only permit self-identified party members to vote in the primary. Hence Specter or any other moderate Republican faces a very tough primary. Assuming Specter does not screw up and entice a strong Democratic primary challenger he can go into the general election without really pulling exciting the Democratic hard core base which would have real problems with him. He has 70% of the voters available to him, 40% of whom likely identify more closely with him than any typical "hard-core conservative" or "liberal Democrat".
Net net I do not see his move requiring very many folks to "blindly vote for Specter". Our system is built to limit the electability of the hard core candidates for better or worse. This is ultimately all about alternatives, is Specter the ideal progressive candidate? Absolutely not but then in Pennsylvania ideal progressive candidates are not elected which in my book makes them less than ideal. My ideal is to get the most progressive possible candidate elected not to have the most progressive candidate run and lose.
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