Sunday, May 10, 2009

Why the Republicans Should Be Very Nervous

(click on image to enlarge)
TW: These kind of charts are very interesting to me. As you can see, self-identified Dems outnumber their Republican counter-parts across all age groups now, which in itself is a feat. More interesting though is the distribution. The Republicans are strongest in the 35ish to 45ish group, those are the folks of my generation and just after or those who came of age during the Reagan years. The Dems have two bulges, those folks 50ish to 65ish, the boomers/1960's generation but importantly is the second bulge those under 35.

My recollection from other studies is that party identification tends to be like other branding once established it is sticky. Those 30 and-unders may be voting Dem for a long, long time. There will be an opportunity for the Republicans in five to ten years as that the boomer bulge ages and declines in numbers. If the Republicans can somehow become relevant for tomorrows 18 year-olds then they can make progress. But with a person like Obama in the White House (not to mention the cadre of knuckleheads running the Republicans at the moment) that may be a tough goal.

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