Monday, June 15, 2009

What the Iranian "Election" Means

TW: The incumbents in Iran appear to have almost certainly short-circuited the electoral process in Iran in order to retain power. What are the implications? My take based on my biases, extremely limited information and overall ignorance (which still leaves me ahead of many in the media):

1) Why do we care? Where to start? We have 250K+ troops deployed on Iran's borders to their west and northeast, Iran can either make our troops more or less challenging. Iran is a major oil provider sitting astride the Straits of Hormuz through which massive quantities of other oil moves. Iran is aggressively pursuing nuclear weaponry, how their pursuit evolves will determine whether we end up with another major military confrontation or perhaps design a resolution supporting a more stable region. Iran is a large pluralistic society with whom should we be able to establish positive relations world history could change for the better.
2) Iran is not a pluralistic, open society in the sense of a "liberalized Western" nation but Iran has been significantly more pluralistic than say Saudi Arabia. This "stolen" election severely undermines the pluralism within Iran. Pluralism equates to soft power, Iran's soft power suffers.
What does that mean?
A) Iranian pretensions to represent the "Middle Eastern street" lose credibility.
B) Iranian government's claim to be something other(better) than a mere oligarchy with power (i.e. Saudi Arabia/Egypt) loses credibility
C) Iranian prestige internationally loses credibility

What does loss of credibility mean- the bad stuff?
A) It increases the likelihood of confrontation with the West
B) With Ahmedjinead and the Grand Mullahs governing as despotic oligarchs it will be easy to portray the Iranian government as the "bad" guy for better or worse.
C) Will Ahmedinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei move away from the precipice of direct confrontation with the West or step back? With Moussavi in power the Ayatollah would have had more room to maneuver, with Ahmedinejad in power, the Western trigger fingers will tense up.

What does loss of credibility mean- the good stuff?
A) If Iran loses street cred. then their adherents such as Hamas and Hizbollah suffer as well
B) Iran was building soft power by combining social spending abroad with a scent of pluralism. The funds can still flow but they will be merely funds no longer supported by any claim to represent an alternative governance approach compared to the Arab oligarchs. Money is not a problem in that part of the world, in fact many of the problems result from too many petro-dollars sloshing around a poorly governed region. What is needed is good governance, Iranian claims in that area have been shattered.

More later.

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