Friday, July 24, 2009

Blue Dogs Caught Between Barack and a Hard Place

TW: Love this piece. The premise is that IF Obama's health care reform is truly unpopular in these Doggie districts they are likely screwed anyway. It addresses the crucial issue of the role of centrists in health care specifically but really more broadly relative to their own party. Folks either politicians or otherwise frequently get confused as to why they are where they are in life.

From Nate Silver at 538.com:
"...Well, then, Mr. Blue Dog, you have a problem on your hands.You're going to lose anyway. If these voters are not capable of supporting health care, what other planks of the Democratic agenda are they going to support?

The carbon tax? Not rural, energy-intensive districts.

Maybe your constituents liked the bailout? Didn't think so.

Perhaps they're waiting for Obama to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act? Um, probably not.

The fact is, Mr. Blue Dog, there's a good chance that the reason you're in power is because George W. Bush was in power. When Bush was in power, you didn't have to advance your party's own agenda -- you just had to block some of the more unpopular elements of his.But you don't have that advantage anymore. You're going to have to endure at least two more elections with Obama as your President -- and since the Republican candidates in 2012 are Dopey, Sleazy and Romney, probably four. You're going to start having to finding at least a few things to vote for.

And if health care isn't one of them, it's hard to see what else is, at least in your sort of district.

Maybe you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. But the only world in which you are popular enough to get re-elected is one which this bill is popular enough for you to vote for."

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