TW: The Honduras situation is one where 95% of Americans will pay little or no attention. Hence their perspectives will be driven by the superficial headlines mentioning coups, Chavez etc. This lack of attention is understandable, Honduras is not necessarily strategic but it can be instructive.
Honduras demonstrates some of the challenges with democracy. Zelaya the ousted president was duly elected but once elected veered toward aligning himself with Hugo Chavez. Furthermore he began to agitate for super-constitutional powers which would have extended his power and length in office. Rather than follow constitutional processes themselves, however, the Honduran military with a fair amount of popular support removed Zelaya from office and deported him.
Both Zelaya and anti-Zelaya forces have strength amidst the populace so now the country verges on civil war. What would have happened if the anti-Zelaya forces had been disciplined enough to follow constitutional processes? Now if Zelaya wins expect a full-bore pro-Chavez, anti-American regime.
The U.S. and others are left in a bit of a quandary- support the actual rule of law or support Zelaya who was heading down a potentially unlawful path. To support coups risks opening (or more accurately re-opening) a pandora's box or undemocratic behavior. We yanquis acquired a well-deserved reputation during the Cold War of supporting democracy except when we did'nt (usually when a lefty sympathizer got too close to power).
My suspicion is that we will loudly support the rule of law while quietly hoping and helping Zelaya to find a cushy retirement home in Caracas or elsewhere. It is not as black and white as some on the right (i.e. Sen. DeMint of SC) would prefer by having us go back to the good old days by coming out in favor of coups.
From Economist:
"Manuel Zelaya is a moustachioed timber magnate who won Honduras’s presidential election in 2005 as a law-and-order candidate for the mainstream Liberal Party only to alienate most of the country by allying himself with Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s leftist president. His overthrow in a military coup on June 28th was followed by calls for his restoration of striking unanimity and vehemence, from Barack Obama, Mr Chávez, the Organisation of American States (OAS) and the United Nations General Assembly, among others.
The only people who don’t seem to want the president back in his job are Hondurans...
...there is no evidence of Hondurans clamouring for the president’s return with anything like the enthusiasm of outsiders.
That is because most have tired of his rule, and blame him for the constitutional crisis that preceded the coup. It was precipitated by his attempt to emulate Mr Chávez by organising a referendum to call a constituent assembly, which he seemed to hope would allow him to remain in power beyond January, when his four-year term ends. Under Honduras’s constitution, only Congress can call referendums and it was against one. Mr Zelaya went ahead anyway. When the head of the armed forces refused to carry out an order to distribute the ballot papers, the president sacked him. The Supreme Court reinstated the general, and the electoral tribunal ordered the ballots to be confiscated.
...Mr Zelaya’s presidency has been marked by a rise in crime, corruption scandals and economic populism. He pushed through big wage increases for teachers and government workers. When money ran short, he turned to Mr Chávez for petrodollars.
...In opinion polls, Mr Zelaya’s approval rating sank to 30%. Mr Chávez is unpopular in a conservative country with close ties to the United States, its main trade partner. Honduras’s media are full of allegations of infiltration by communist agents and drug traffickers from Venezuela and Nicaragua.
...In Honduras the army and all the main political parties are united in opposing Mr Zelaya, whose only backers are trade unions, leftist social movements and some among the poor..."
http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13952942
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