(click to enlarge images, via 538.com)TW: The above show the movement for the Dems and Republicans by state since the 1994 "Gingrich" election. As we have posited previously the Republicans have become increasingly southern while the Dems have consolidated the northeast whilst growing their base in the mountain states. North Carolina being an exception which has gotten bluer as well.
The tricky part for the Dems is those southern Republican numbers will likely not change too much soon, their base is solid and getting even more conservative. Over time demographics especially related to Hispanics may have a significant impact making some of those states less red .
The Dem inroads in the mountain states and places like NC are precarious and vulnerable to the particularities of current events at the time of the next election. Converting folks disenchanted with W. Bush, Iraq etc. into actual progressive Dems will take some significant work.
No comments:
Post a Comment