A Bit Of Afghan Historical Context

TW: If you are seriously interested in the Afghanistan situation and I most definitely believe you should be given its strategic implications for the U.S., then you should read Ahmed Rashid. He is a Pakistani journalist/analyst with extensive experience inside Afghanistan and interfacing with players throughout the region including those in the Taliban. The first book I read post 9/11 was his book "The Taliban". That book was published pre 9/11, hence void of the emotions and biases which pervade any subsequent work. I am re-reading it now in conjunction with reading his later work "Descent Into Chaos" which describes events in the AfPak region since 9/11.

Certain things jump out from his books. One, Afghanistan is geographically and economically the armpit (my word not his) of the world. The country is an ethnic potpourri of Uzbeks, Tajiks, Shia Hazera and Pashtuns amongst others surrounded by major (Russia, India, China), regional (Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia) and minor (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan etc.) powers all seeking to exert some level of influence. This dynamic is not a post 9/11 phenomenon, at certain levels it has been in action for centuries but its most recent incarnation began with the Soviet invasion in 1979, which is when the largest power, the U.S., took interest. An interest which waned during the post-Soviet period but obviously waxed quickly and with passion post 9/11.

Two, the country is dirt poor exhibiting all of the characteristics of similarly poor nations- illiteracy, ragged to non-existent infrastructure, pervasive corruption etc. Tribal ties rule governance and the economy. The GDP of the entire country including its largest cash crop, heroin is only about $12 billion (non PPP basis).

The Soviet Afghan was brutal with deaths measured in the 100,000s annually. The civil war post the Soviet withdrawal was also brutal with deaths from the war in the 10,000s annually. The brutality was not merely in the number of dead but the nature as the various tribes butchered each other regularly when afforded the opportunity.

The Taliban appear to differentiate themselves primarily through the employment of Sharia law which supplements their brutality with severe misogynistic behavior. They also unlike other tribal entities have become very comfortable accommodating Al Qaeda.

This last characteristic becomes the crucial one. Was Al Qaeda a virus which attached itself to a neutral host or was the Taliban an enabling petri dish whose nature is to nurture society destroying viruses?

This post answers nothing. It only provides a bit context. More to come.