Good Move On Missile Defense

TW: Much going on with the move by Obama to shift the focus of our regional BMD from Eastern Europe to other venues (sea-based and perhaps nations closer to Iran).
1) It is an explicit change from Bush policy which is relatively rare and naturally gets the usual suspects up in arms but one must keep in mind the Polish/Czech BMD deployment's purpose was always meant in substance to create a shield against limited missile launches by a regional power such as Iran. It was not meant to provide cover against a major power such as Russia. If we had started encircling Russia with BMD then the Russians would have rightly regarded that as a massive escalation and unfriendly move on our part. Those shrieking about "caving" to the Russians are wrong.
2) This does not mean there will not be a quid pro quo from Russia which many expect will be greatly enhanced cooperation in addressing the Iranian nuke program.
3) As far as supporting the Poles (and to lesser extent the Czechs), public support in those countries for the BMD deployment was marginal. There are many things we can do besides BMD deployment against in Iran in Poland to express our support for strong Eastern European allies.
4) If one hears military folks lament the change in approach then I would be more concerned but I suspect any such concerns will not be forthcoming as militarily the new BMD approach makes sense.
4) There is much chatter in the blogosphere about signs pointing to significant stars aligning for some sort of inflection point relative to the Iran nukes program. The likely outcome being aggressive sanctions soon with Russian and some Chinese cooperation. We shall see.

From Information Dissemenation (no national defense shrinking violet):
"The reaction in Poland and the Czech Republic clearly illustrates that the purpose of the ballistic missiles in those countries was to influence Russia, yet the Bush administration always sold the concept domestically from the political position that the shield protects the US from Iranian ballistic missiles, an obvious disingenuous position. To me, that indicated Bush was sending a signal to Russia that the ballistic missile shield was on the negotiating table for the subject of Iran.

I look at the decision today and see a smart move by Gates, for reasons previously discussed, but believe the politics of this has everything to do with the Obama administration successfully trading the ballistic missile shield deployment to eastern Europe for something in regards to Iran.

France is now 'sure' Iran is working on nukes. Israel is sending every signal it can that it is poised to attack. The IAEA now says Iran has sufficient information to build a bomb. Israel is calling for tough sanctions, and suggests they will attack if tough sanctions aren't applied.

Then there is the immediate effect the timing the Eastern European decision has on Israel. All that equipment heading to Israel for the Juniper Cobra exercise in mid-October is supposedly going to stay put now. That will be useful.We seem to be heading towards one of two conclusions. Either big time sanctions are applied on Iran, or Israel attacks Iran by the end of the year. Today's actions suggest Russia will support the sanctions, but I guess we will have to wait and see."