Polling Chimeras

TW: I wrote this is a post in mid-July:

"remember media reports only if poll ratings are headed up or down rarely whether the absolute numbers are good or bad, hence high approvals inevitably lead to later stories about "weakening" poll numbers)."

So starting then and for the next two months we were treated to a stream of "Obama (and the Dems) poll numbers are cratering" followed by fretting from the Dems or wild relief from the Repubs. Now, of course, we are seeing a bit of a reversal as one can also say:

"remember media reports only if ratings are headed up or down rarely whether the absolute numbers are good or bad, hence lower approvals inevitably lead to later stories about "strengthening" poll numbers)*."

*(unless of course one is W. Bush whose ineptness never created any sort of environment for improvement, but then his poll numbers increased only after national tragedies)

The only poll numbers that matter are those directly in front of an election. One should always remember that.