TW: I do not post much on the 2010 (much less 2012) elections because I just think too many things will change between now and then. Partially just because it makes convenient media (conflict/change etc. the mother's milk of media), some hopeful folks are talking about a 1994 redux whereby the Republicans would re-gain control of at least the House of Reps.I find this unlikely. My thoughts are as follows:
1) The approval for the Dems is falling, but so is approval for Repubs. Until and unless the Repubs define viable alternative policies (so far they define few if any alternatives much less viable ones). The 1994 Repubs had the highly effective marketing tool if substantively bereft device known as the Contract with America. Nothing close exists yet although there is plenty of time for something to evolve.
2) Demographics today are much different than 1994 in favor of the Dems
3) There is a minority of Americans who hate the concept of Barack Hussein Obama. They are fired up. There is a mushy middle. And then there is a minority of Americans who love the concept of BHO, we remain fired up too.
4) The piece that remains to be determined is the economy. If the economy continues to falter or worse, then yes things could get ugly for the Dems. But then I ask what exactly do you think the Republicans would do with the economy? Cut spending amidst a deflationary, demand contraction? Cut taxes and increase the deficit structurally even more? De-regulate Wall Street further?
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/10/everyone_hates_the_republicans.html
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