Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Some Barnett Thoughts

TW: A little smorgasbord of thoughts from national security analyst Barnett. He belongs to that group of analysts who are about as politically unbiased as humanly possible.

From Tom Barnett's blog:
On continued anti-American sentiment in Pakistan:
"Hard to see how, over time, if we are to succeed in stabilizing Afghanistan, that we won't be pushed in the direction of isolating Pakistan for its combined inability to police the FATA and unwillingness to let outsiders step in. I just don't see this bilateral relationship surviving--hence my continuing message to choose India first in whatever strategic decisions we make."
TW: Barnett is a huge fan of aligning the U.S. as closely as feasible with India, a nation which is growing almost as quickly as China economically but democratic, an Anglo legal system and even more people.

On the continuing diplomatic dialogue with Cuba
"I like the quiet approach on Cuba. Also the broad engagement.
The good stuff usually goes on quietly."

TW: As I have said before our closed door policies with Cuba are an asinine result a single interest group blocking a policy for the greater good. To the extent we can mitigate these policies so much the better.

On Iran getting nukes:
"My argument for five years now: Iran has maneuvered itself effectively into this position. We either deal with this reality or pretend the lid can be kept on the box. But just as important to realize: this is a failed revolution deep into its Brezhnevian funk, with a Solidarnosc-like popular rebellion in the works. In sum, this is a manageable problem. We've been down this path before. No freaking out, please!"
TW: Barnett is in the camp of accepting Iran is going to get nukes. Furthermore Iran attaining nukes is a containable development. Barnett also firmly believes Iran's governance will undergo major evolution away from the mullahs sooner rather than later.

And finally (referring to their recent "toughness" re Iran)
"The French are somewhat amazing: when you need tough, they disappear, and when tough is pointless, they're right up front. Amazing how they come up with these leaders!"
TW: This is America, we abuse the French (and vice versa) it is a true marriage.

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