Classic Posts: How Big Is This Iran Thing?

From September 2009
TW: BIG. Very big.

The world is witnessing an organic push for democracy, not imposed by the West, an internal organic push by its own citizens. This would be a first in that part of the world. Mind you this is not a push for liberalized Western democracy with codified individual liberties, strong judiciary etc. so the resulting regime, should it ever assume power, would be a different animal than say a Vaclav Havel Czech republic. Yet it would be a massive improvement compared to the status quo.

Two pivotal events occurred in 1978-1979, the overthrow of the Shah with an installation of the Shiite theocracy in Iran and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Both events have led to a spiraling series of negative impacts on the West.

An agitating Iran seeking to foment problems for the West at many turns (i.e. Hizbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, indirect terrorist acts in the 1980's etc.). While the Afghani Soviet freedom fighters originally strongly supported by the West morphed directly into the Taliban and Al-Qaeda (two related but very different entities).

Imagine an Iranian regime less outward focused on causing distracting mischief and more inwardly focused on addressing its own population's needs and desires. The Iranian economy has never come close to its potential under the clumsy leadership of the theocracy and the populist Ahmadinejad. The economic sanctions imposed by the West while by no means 100% effective could if reduced greatly help the economic development of a nation under more enlightened leadership.

An Iranian pluralistic revolution would also create a template which could have serious implications for the balance of the Middle East and South Asia. The Islamic Revolution of Khomeini launched the strident, radicalized Islam with which the West has wrestled for thirty years. Radicalized Islam replaced the nationalistic but secular movements of Nassar in Egypt and Assad in Syria as the leading anti-Western alternative.

A less theocratic, more pluralistic Iranian revolution could provide (especially combined with the evolving Iraqi nation) a means by the people of the region could engage with the West in a far more constructive manner.

Will this happen? who knows. Even if it does the challenges will be considerable- the Iranian nuclear program will not go away and a less theocratic and pluralistic Iran would still have no interest in being the West's lackey. That said should this revolution occur, and perhaps even it does not, this revolution unlike the last may make the world a less dangerous place.