Sage Comments From Bubba

Bill Clinton as quoted by Ezra Klein at WaPo:
"I still think there is some chance the Israelis and the Hamas government and the Palestinian government could make a deal. Because I think that the long-term trend lines are bad for both sides that have the capacity to make a deal. Right now, Hamas is kind of discredited after the Gaza operation, and yet [the Palestinian Authority] is clearly increasing [its] capacity. They are in good shape right now, but if they are not able to deliver sustained economic and political advances, that's not good for them. The long-term trends for the Israelis are even more stark, because they will soon enough not be a majority. Then they will have to decide at that point whether they will continue to be a democracy and no longer be a Jewish state, or continue to be a Jewish state and no longer be a democracy. That's the great spur.

The other thing that has not been sufficiently appreciated is the inevitable arc of technological capacity that applies to military weaponry, like it does to PCs and video games and everything else. I know that these rockets drove the Israelis nuts, and I didn't blame them for being angry and frustrated -- it was maddening. But let's be candid: They were not very accurate. So it's only a question of time until they are de facto outfitted with GPS positioning systems. And when that happens and the casualty rates start to really mount, will that make it more difficult for the Palestinians to make peace instead of less? Because they will be even more pressed by the radical groups saying, "No, no, look, look, we are making eight out of 10 hits. Let's stay at this." I think one of the surprising things that might happen this year [2010] is you might get a substantial agreement. Nobody believes this will happen, and it probably won't, because of the political complexity of the Israeli government. But all I can tell you is, I spent a lot of time when I was president trying to make a distinction between the headlines and the trend lines. If there was ever a place where studying the trend lines would lead you to conclude that sooner is better than later for deal-making, it would be there."
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/12/clinton_how_better_weapons_cou.html

TW: Clinton makes good points (as he usually does, honest I am keeping my eyes out for similar insight from W. Bush...). Trend lines in the Israeli-Palestinian realm are troubling mostly for the Israelis although every day that goes by with the Palestinian mired in their poverty and partial anarchy is a day lost for them as well.

The weapons technology is also very interesting, one would think more accurate missiles would create a greater threat for Israel which it certainly does at a certain level. But the current inaccuracy provides a certain level of cover for the missile firers. Should they hit something it would be due to "bad luck" and the inaccuracy allows the perpetrators to maintain a certain level of terror without actually setting off the direct retribution should mass casualties occur.

Should they have missiles capable of actual accuracy then they would have to assume direct responsibility for their actions. Should mass casualties occur "chance" would no longer be part of the equation. The blame would be direct, retribution therefore more likely and most importantly more widely supported by outsiders such as Europe etc. As asymmetry between Israel and Hamas is reduced, the ability of Hamas to play the victim diminishes even as their ability to inflict damage potentially increases. As the conflict becomes more conventional the Israelis would retain their head to head superiority arguably making increased accuracy undesirable for Hamas/Hezbollah et al. There is a reason one frequently hears Hamas et al. boasting of rockets with increased range but not necessarily increased accuracy.