TW: Folks get frustrated, agitated and generally sour during tough economic times. The media takes these moods and extrapolates away. I do not think the Dems are going to lose either half of Congress. The Scott Brown victory in Mass will be seen as the apex of the wave against Obama. FDR's Democratic coalition was done by 1982 although it was not 100% clear. The Dems will take losses in '10, then the big test will come in '12.
From David Broder (circa 1982) via Ezra Klein at WaPo:
"It is customary in the second January after each inaugural ceremony to write a midterm assessment of a presidency. That is what I set out to do. But it quickly became clear that in the case of Ronald Reagan, something else is required.
What we are witnessing this January is not the midpoint in the Reagan presidency, but its phase-out. "Reaganism," it is becoming increasingly clear, was a one- year phenomenon, lasting from his nomination in the summer of 1980 to the passage of his first budget and tax bills in the summer of 1981. What has been occurring ever since is an accelerating retreat from Reaganism, a process in which he is more spectator than leader.
One measure of that transition was last week's Gallup Poll showing Reagan trailing two leading Democrats in trial heats for the 1984 election. Former vice president Walter Mondale had a 52-40 percent lead, and Sen. John Glenn of Ohio had a 54-39 advantage.
Such leads for opposition candidates are extremely rare at this stage of the cycle when all presidents, including Reagan, enjoy an aura of authority. But presidential polls change. Much more significant is the way in which power is moving away from Reagan in the ongoing work of government. What began as a process of delegation is rapidly approaching abdication."
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/03/the_1982_election_and_pundit_f.html
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