Watch VERY Closely And Ignore Them

TW: North Korea is a true international pariah, their leaders choosing to isolate the nation from globalization rather than engage even at great harm to the populace. The one bargaining chip they have is to poke the international community including playing with nukes. They act in a fairly predictable way to attain aid and some degree of influence merely by nuisance.

As with most nuisance the best means by which to address them is to ignore them unless and until they should become something worse. Like many situations there are essentially no viable military solutions short of a massive and hugely destructive all-out attack which due to the North Korean conventional and nuclear forces would need to be extraordinary. That attack would not be in anyway be surgical.

Those on the right who call for "something strong" in response almost never define what that is only that it be "strong". As the piece points out if the North Koreans act rationally they are containable, if not something drastic would have to happen but if that were to pass millions might die. I would hope we monitor very closely whilst letting the nuisance stew in its own strange juices.

From Economist:
"THREATS of war are nothing new for North Korea, so Pyongyang's latest warning to Seoul, after the South took the largely symbolic step of joining the Proliferation Security Initiative, is easily dismissed by some. Russia, though, is not amused, and John McCreary of NightWatch describes a possibility that oughtto affect America's reaction.

During the past 40 years North Korean leaders have been blustery but
fundamentally risk averse. They have done nothing that would risk the total
destruction of their state—which means Pyongyang for all practical and symbolic
purposes—until now. ....

The actions in the past two days represent risk accepting behavior,
defiance bordering on recklessness. This behavior began shortly after Kim
Chong-il's stroke in August 2008. If Kim is ordering these actions, he has had a
personality change, which can occur if dementia follows a stroke, according to
medical authorities.

Yesterday and today numerous pundits proffered ideas of how Barack Obama might deal with the hermit kingdom. Most assumed some sort of rationality on the part of Pyongyang, believing that Mr Kim wants aid in exchange for his nukes. But what if the pot-bellied dictator is truly a mad man who has lost his mind? Mr Obama's best strategy is to simply sit back and wait for the country's internal political situation to sort itself out. Dealing with Pyongyang at this point would be a maddening waste of time. "
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2009/05/has_north_korea_gone_crazy.cfm

What If North Korea Folds?

TW: The recent missile launch caused one of our periodic bursts of attention to the region. But what if North Korea's government were to implode somewhat like the old Warsaw Pact nations? Is this desirable? I suspect the South Koreans would be at best ambivalent. While Korea's northern Asian neighbors would look askance at a united Korea (pro forma population of around 65 million) with whom both Japan and China have had historically challenging relationships.

Unlike the East Germans and other Warsaw Pact populations who had incomplete but significant knowledge of life outside their own nations, the North Koreans have lived in utter isolation from happenings not only in South Korea but the rest of the world. WaPo takes a look at the experiences of some of the few folks who have emigrated to South Korea. The adjustments have been considerable even if the details provided may be somewhat apocryphal.

From WaPo:
"...Teenagers are particularly bewildered. As part of the newest wave in a decade-old flow of defectors from the North, they arrive stunted from malnutrition and struggling to read. At the movies for the first time, they panic when the lights go down, afraid someone might kidnap them. They find it incredible that money is stored in plastic credit cards. Pizza, hot dogs and hamburgers -- staples of South Korean teen cuisine -- give them indigestion. One gargled with liquid fabric softener, mistaking it for mouthwash.

...Everyone who defects has adjustment problems," said Ko Gyoung-bin, director general of a settlement center called Hanowan, a government-financed cluster of red-brick buildings perched in hill country about 70 miles south of Seoul.

All adult defectors are required to spend three months at Hanowan, where they receive psychiatric counseling, learn their rights under South Korean law, take driving lessons and go on field trips to department stores, banks and subways.

Teenage defectors spend two months to two years at nearby Hangyoreh Middle-High School, a remedial boarding school the government built three years ago to help the increasing number of newly arrived youngsters who are unfit for public schools. Many have been out of school for years and have difficulty with basic reading and math.

"All I learned in school in North Korea was that Kim Jong Il was the best leader and that North Korea was the best country," said Lee, who is in her final year at Hangyoreh and hopes to become an English teacher.

...But helping defectors is rarely easy, the staff said, for they trust no one.

...She had learned at Hanowan how to use a computer, manage money and avoid swindlers who prey on the ignorance of newcomers from the North. But she struggled to speak Korean as it is spoken in the South, with a slang that is infused with hundreds of words borrowed from American English. "Language was a real problem," she said. "Sometimes I would insult people without intending to do so."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/11/AR2009041100766_pf.html