TW: Rothenburg put together some year end political awards, categories included:
Master of Self-Destruction
Strongest Republican swimmer against the tide
Time to stop running
Most Overhyped House Candidate
Biggest Long-Shot Winner
Best Name in the New Congress
Most Religious-Sounding Name
Most Overhyped, Self-Important, Delusional Presidential Candidate
Some good stuff (of course Sarah "Dave/Fembot" Palin deserved her own category but was snubbed)
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/12/rothenbergs-end-of-year-awards-for-2008.html
Showing posts with label Stuart Rothenburg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stuart Rothenburg. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Monday, December 15, 2008
About That Republican Rebound
TW: Republicans are fired up about winning the GA Senate seat and a couple of Louisiana congressional races. Combined with some Blagospheria certainly they feel better about themselves than they did six weeks ago. As Gonzalez argues the electoral victories were hollow ones given where they occurred (deep Red states and a grossly corrupt Dem district). The Blagospheria will have tactical value in Illinois for sure and sullies the Dem brand at least briefly. But net net I am still feeling pretty good.
From Nate Gonzalez at Rothenburg Report:
"It’s understandable that Republicans are looking for any glimmer of good news after getting drubbed in consecutive election cycles. But their celebration over recent victories in Georgia and Louisiana is over the top and leaves the party ignoring electoral reality...
Republicans look like the football team dancing in the end zone in the fourth quarter of a game when they’re down by 40 points...
While it’s nice to claim victory in the first three contests of the Obama era, Republicans should not forget that they held a GOP seat in Georgia, held a GOP seat in Louisiana’s 4th district and defeated an indicted Democrat who hid $90,000 cash in his freezer in Louisiana’s 2nd district...
Republicans should face the reality of the current electoral landscape. Over the last two cycles, they have lost more than 50 seats in the House and at least 13 seats in the Senate...Republicans need to come to terms with the fact that over the last four years, Democrats have gained control of every level of government..."
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/12/republicans-should-quit-celebrating-and.html
From Nate Gonzalez at Rothenburg Report:
"It’s understandable that Republicans are looking for any glimmer of good news after getting drubbed in consecutive election cycles. But their celebration over recent victories in Georgia and Louisiana is over the top and leaves the party ignoring electoral reality...
Republicans look like the football team dancing in the end zone in the fourth quarter of a game when they’re down by 40 points...
While it’s nice to claim victory in the first three contests of the Obama era, Republicans should not forget that they held a GOP seat in Georgia, held a GOP seat in Louisiana’s 4th district and defeated an indicted Democrat who hid $90,000 cash in his freezer in Louisiana’s 2nd district...
Republicans should face the reality of the current electoral landscape. Over the last two cycles, they have lost more than 50 seats in the House and at least 13 seats in the Senate...Republicans need to come to terms with the fact that over the last four years, Democrats have gained control of every level of government..."
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/12/republicans-should-quit-celebrating-and.html
Monday, September 15, 2008
More Rothenburg Analysis Of Where the Election Stands
TW: As I have mentioned previously Stuart Rothenburg is about as analytical and unbiased as any of the politicos out there, his latest:
"Don’t assume that the first flurry of polls we’ve seen this week will reflect the 2008 electoral landscape two or three weeks from now. Like the Democratic convention bounce...the Republican bounce...is likely to dissipate...For months, I’ve argued that the public’s disconnect between McCain’s brand and the GOP brand was filled with both risk and opportunity for Republicans. Either the party’s terrible image could rebrand McCain, causing him to plummet in the polls and dragging him down to defeat, or McCain could redefine the Republican Party and improve its image.While the CNN poll suggests that McCain’s image — or running mate Sarah Palin’s — has re-branded his party, it is far too early to conclude that that is exactly what has happened. The recently released NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey, which rarely jumps around erratically and therefore has earned my admiration, showed less redefinition of the parties...unless and until other surveys confirm a new political reality in the electorate, it’s wise to be cautious and assume that Republicans are still swimming against a strong tide."
"Don’t assume that the first flurry of polls we’ve seen this week will reflect the 2008 electoral landscape two or three weeks from now. Like the Democratic convention bounce...the Republican bounce...is likely to dissipate...For months, I’ve argued that the public’s disconnect between McCain’s brand and the GOP brand was filled with both risk and opportunity for Republicans. Either the party’s terrible image could rebrand McCain, causing him to plummet in the polls and dragging him down to defeat, or McCain could redefine the Republican Party and improve its image.While the CNN poll suggests that McCain’s image — or running mate Sarah Palin’s — has re-branded his party, it is far too early to conclude that that is exactly what has happened. The recently released NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey, which rarely jumps around erratically and therefore has earned my admiration, showed less redefinition of the parties...unless and until other surveys confirm a new political reality in the electorate, it’s wise to be cautious and assume that Republicans are still swimming against a strong tide."
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Rothenburg: Campaign Metrics For the Next Eight Weeks
TW: Rothenburg is about as straight down the middle politically as they come, his analysis follows as to where the race stands currently:
By Stuart Rothenberg
The final phase of the 2008 presidential campaign has begun. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has the edge over Republican standard-bearer Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), but the race is competitive, so the next two months will determine the winner.McCain has the ability and a strong incentive now to change his emphasis as he tries to appeal to swing voters. Obama doesn’t appear to have as urgent a need to make a statement about himself and his candidacy, but if he does, he could dramatically improve his prospects in a race that he has not yet wrapped up.After solidifying and energizing his right flank with the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate, McCain surely has a newfound freedom to run back to the political center, emphasizing his maverick credentials and differences with his party. He should do so, and he began that process with his acceptance speech.While voters now tell pollsters that the economy is the top issue, Palin and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani spent much of their time Wednesday night in St. Paul, Minn., declaring what one convention Republican delegate called a “culture war,” pitting rural America against the national media, Hollywood and the nation’s elite.That may seem strange, but it isn’t.True, many Americans are concerned about the health and direction of the economy, and they surely want the next president to have a detailed economic agenda to restore the economy’s health. But because neither party has an easy answer to the nation’s problems, the nation’s still-deep cultural divide becomes an obvious place for the McCain/Palin ticket to go to energize conservatives and to appeal to voters who otherwise might think about voting for the Democratic ticket because of economic uncertainty.Democrats still don’t understand the cultural divide — they think that talking about values or religion will automatically attract religious voters even if the party’s policy positions are totally at odds with those voters’ positions — and they have nominated a ticket that apparently still has limited appeal in small-town and culturally conservative America.But McCain’s problem — and Obama’s advantage — is that it is very unlikely that there are enough voters in small-town America to elect McCain to the presidency this time. He cannot win by getting every Republican vote out there, since most polls show Democrats with about a 10-point generic advantage.McCain must return to his maverick image, and he and Palin are well-positioned to deliver a reform message that diverges from Republican orthodoxy. This would, of course, require McCain to talk again about some issues and themes that will make Republican regulars and conservatives uncomfortable, not merely to ramble on about how Washington, D.C., is broken or how he will shake things up when he gets to the White House.McCain will need to offer specifics and new ideas, something that he did not do Thursday evening. It’s his only way to appeal to swing suburbanites and working-class Democrats, two key constituencies for November.Conservatives no longer find McCain merely acceptable as an alternative to Obama. They are with the McCain/Palin ticket wholeheartedly, which gives him considerable freedom over the next two months to tack left.And Obama? The Democrat’s game plan looks pretty clear: Continue to ride the wave of change, convince still-undecided voters that he is a safer choice than they now think, and continue to portray McCain as little more than a Republican successor to President Bush.It’s a good plan, and it may well be good enough to win at least 270 Electoral College votes, especially if Palin falters, McCain performs poorly in the debates, or Democrats truly have changed the political arithmetic by registering new voters.But Obama has not done one thing that I was sure he would do by now — one thing that could have already improved his prospects in the fall. He needs to find an issue or controversy with which he strongly disagrees with his party — or with a core Democratic constituency group — to prove to swing voters that he’s not merely another elitist Northern liberal.Obama talks a good game about disagreeing without being disagreeable and about coming together to solve the nation’s problems. But Republicans have rather successfully portrayed him as a man who is all talk and no action. And, they are sure to say, when he takes action, it’s predictably liberal.I thought for sure that by now Obama would have found an issue or two to break with his anti-war left or with his labor union allies or with his environmental allies. But so far he hasn’t found that Sister Souljah moment that grabs the nation’s attention, causes real upset among some of his supporters and proves his political independence. He may need to find one to guarantee victory in the fall.
By Stuart Rothenberg
The final phase of the 2008 presidential campaign has begun. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has the edge over Republican standard-bearer Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), but the race is competitive, so the next two months will determine the winner.McCain has the ability and a strong incentive now to change his emphasis as he tries to appeal to swing voters. Obama doesn’t appear to have as urgent a need to make a statement about himself and his candidacy, but if he does, he could dramatically improve his prospects in a race that he has not yet wrapped up.After solidifying and energizing his right flank with the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate, McCain surely has a newfound freedom to run back to the political center, emphasizing his maverick credentials and differences with his party. He should do so, and he began that process with his acceptance speech.While voters now tell pollsters that the economy is the top issue, Palin and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani spent much of their time Wednesday night in St. Paul, Minn., declaring what one convention Republican delegate called a “culture war,” pitting rural America against the national media, Hollywood and the nation’s elite.That may seem strange, but it isn’t.True, many Americans are concerned about the health and direction of the economy, and they surely want the next president to have a detailed economic agenda to restore the economy’s health. But because neither party has an easy answer to the nation’s problems, the nation’s still-deep cultural divide becomes an obvious place for the McCain/Palin ticket to go to energize conservatives and to appeal to voters who otherwise might think about voting for the Democratic ticket because of economic uncertainty.Democrats still don’t understand the cultural divide — they think that talking about values or religion will automatically attract religious voters even if the party’s policy positions are totally at odds with those voters’ positions — and they have nominated a ticket that apparently still has limited appeal in small-town and culturally conservative America.But McCain’s problem — and Obama’s advantage — is that it is very unlikely that there are enough voters in small-town America to elect McCain to the presidency this time. He cannot win by getting every Republican vote out there, since most polls show Democrats with about a 10-point generic advantage.McCain must return to his maverick image, and he and Palin are well-positioned to deliver a reform message that diverges from Republican orthodoxy. This would, of course, require McCain to talk again about some issues and themes that will make Republican regulars and conservatives uncomfortable, not merely to ramble on about how Washington, D.C., is broken or how he will shake things up when he gets to the White House.McCain will need to offer specifics and new ideas, something that he did not do Thursday evening. It’s his only way to appeal to swing suburbanites and working-class Democrats, two key constituencies for November.Conservatives no longer find McCain merely acceptable as an alternative to Obama. They are with the McCain/Palin ticket wholeheartedly, which gives him considerable freedom over the next two months to tack left.And Obama? The Democrat’s game plan looks pretty clear: Continue to ride the wave of change, convince still-undecided voters that he is a safer choice than they now think, and continue to portray McCain as little more than a Republican successor to President Bush.It’s a good plan, and it may well be good enough to win at least 270 Electoral College votes, especially if Palin falters, McCain performs poorly in the debates, or Democrats truly have changed the political arithmetic by registering new voters.But Obama has not done one thing that I was sure he would do by now — one thing that could have already improved his prospects in the fall. He needs to find an issue or controversy with which he strongly disagrees with his party — or with a core Democratic constituency group — to prove to swing voters that he’s not merely another elitist Northern liberal.Obama talks a good game about disagreeing without being disagreeable and about coming together to solve the nation’s problems. But Republicans have rather successfully portrayed him as a man who is all talk and no action. And, they are sure to say, when he takes action, it’s predictably liberal.I thought for sure that by now Obama would have found an issue or two to break with his anti-war left or with his labor union allies or with his environmental allies. But so far he hasn’t found that Sister Souljah moment that grabs the nation’s attention, causes real upset among some of his supporters and proves his political independence. He may need to find one to guarantee victory in the fall.
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