TW: it is the (mostly) unspoken backdrop to the election and it behooves Obama to keep it that way because few after all like being called out as biased. But it is real and this analysis merely puts some numbers on the bias. I would strongly urge you to read the report as it is sobering not only in terms of the election but in terms of our society in general.
If one drills into the various polls it is obvious that Obama is losing amongst whites generally by material margins but amongst older, white males by massive margins.
The AP analysis does not say any white that votes against Obama is doing so because one is biased, it does say that bias appears to play a role for some voters.
From AP:
"Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them 'lazy,' 'violent,' responsible for their own troubles...they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views...There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn't mean there's only a few
Lots of Republicans harbor prejudices, too, but the survey found they weren't voting against Obama because of his race. Most Republicans wouldn't vote for any Democrat for president — white, black or brown...Not all whites are prejudiced. Indeed, more whites say good things about blacks than say bad things, the poll shows. And many whites who see blacks in a negative light are still willing or even eager to vote for Obama.
Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice"
TW: one caveat I see they did their polling between 8/27 and 9/5 smack in the middle of the Republican convention and poll surge
UPDATE: Nate Silver at 538.com has post outlining potential flaws/drawbacks with the AP poll. I agree the 6% impact is likely overstated and that race can cut both ways but I believe the study remains important and relevant.
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