The Chase For 60 Senate Seats (Update #2)

TW: Have posted on the Dem's chase for 60 Senate seats a couple of times before (see attached below). The pursuit continues and the Dems' chances are growing but by no means better than 50%. The conviction of Ted Stevens (Republican Alaska) certainly makes the Dems' road easier. At this point the races stand as follows with the Dems needing nine seats to attain cloture:

The likely pick-ups would get the Dems to 56:
Mark Warner is heavily favored for John Warner's open seat in VA
Tom Udall is heavily favored for Pete Domenieci''s open seat in NM
Mark Udall (Tom's cousin) is favored for Wayne Allard's open seat in CO
Jeanne Sheehan leads incumbent John Sununu in NH
Mark Begich is now favored over convicted felon incumbent Ted Stevens in AK

The Dems are in tight races in 3 more to get to 59:
MN with Al Franken v. incumbent Norm Coleman
OR with Jeff Merkley v. incumbent Gordon Smith
NC with Kay Hagan v. incumbent Elizabeth Dole

If this is a wave election those 3 would most likely be Dem pick-ups, leaving the Dems in search of one more seat to get to 60 (and again putting f'ing Joe Lieberman in the position he loves as swing vote)

There are 3 possibilities:
GA with Jim Martin v. incumbent Saxby Chambliss (note in GA if no candidate gets 50% then a run-off will be held, there is a 3rd party polling at material levels so this is a real possibility)
KY with Bruce Hubbard v. incumbent Mitch McConnell
MS with Roger Musgrave v. incumbent Roger Wicker

GA and KY are two of the first states to close polling so if u see either of the incumbents in serious trouble in either of those states expect both a big Obama win and a Dem "wave" election.
http://treylaura.blogspot.com/2008/09/can-dems-get-to-60-seats-in-senate.html

http://treylaura.blogspot.com/2008/10/race-to-60-senate-seats-update.html