TW: Every POTUS confronts the Israeli-Palestinian divide at some level. The divide is so clearly a source of tension, both directly between those entities and indirectly throughout the region, that the tendency is to want to jump into the fray in an effort to resolve once and for all the divide. Economist does a nice job of framing some of Obama's options. Either jumping in aggressively or staying more distant tamp it down approach. W. Bush in 2001 chose the path of remaining distant but while siding almost exclusively with the hard-core Israeli positions. Economist suggests a third path, remaining distant but with a more balanced position.
I concur with the Economist. Israel will hold new elections the month after Obama is inaugurated. The right-wing Likud with Netanyahu are favored to win. The US should not become the mouth piece for Ben Netanyahu.
From Economist:
"...As for Israel, Ehud Olmert was a cooing dove compared to Binyamin Netanyahu, who looks like winning the election in February. He plays annoyingly well on the Hill and pushes the line that Abbas can’t deliver and that Hamas is a terror front for Iran (which, by the way, he wants us to bomb).
Even if you decide against going the whole hog, you’ll lose nothing by saying forcefully before Israel votes that we want a two-state solution with a shared Jerusalem and little modification of the pre-1967 line. Spell out the percentages. Netanyahu might as well know he won’t get another free pass to jerk us around on settlements. Then, honour satisfied, you could decide to put the full package to one side and try something more modest, like peeling Syria from Iran by dangling the Golan Heights. Israel’s own security people want a Syria deal.
If you want to get a settlement with the Palestinians too, we must start early and allow time. If Hillary is too grand to shuttle, appoint an envoy reporting to you to (1) make our Arab friends wangle Hamas back into a Palestinian unity government; and (2) get international buy-in to an “Obama plan”. This will in fact consist of the “parameters” Bill Clinton drew up in 2000 and are the nearest you’ll get to a sellable compromise. Hillary must help you sell this in New York as well as Riyadh. Only then should you step in to close the deal—after figuring out what mix of heat and reassurance to apply to the Israelis. They’re the ones who have to give up something real."
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12725132
No comments:
Post a Comment