TW: Have been meaning to post about the state of the Senate for 2010. One of the self-regulators in American politics is the new POTUS' party using sitting Senators to fill slots in the new administration. Those slots frequently become pick up opportunities for the opposition party. This year the Dems are opening up four Senate seats, all of which would have been heavily favored retentions in '10 but all of which will now at least become somewhat competitive.
(Obama IL/Biden DE/Salazar CO and Clinton NY).
The corollary occurs when the opposing party is also the Congressional minority party with limited prospects of changing that status, when this happens retirements almost inevitably occur. It happened after '06 in front of the '08 election and it appears to be happening again in front of '10. Brownback KS, Martinez FL and now Bond in MO have all dropped out. There will be more before all is said and done. Just as importantly recruiting efforts become very challenging when a party is faced with likely minority status and a popular (so far) incumbent.
From the Economist:
"YOU wouldn't know it to read the all-Roland-Burris-all-the-time headlines, but these are still dark times for Republicans. The news that Kit Bond, a four-term Republican senator from Missouri, will not run for re-election, opens up a seat in a state that basically broke 50-50 for John McCain and Barack Obama.
The Republicans have a deep enough bench to replace Mr Bond, but his relatively early retirement (he turns 70 in March, practically Benjamin Button-ish in Senate terms), alongside Jeb Bush's decision to pass on the Florida Senate race, reveals what Republicans won't admit out loud: They don't think 2010 is going to be a comeback year.
Could there be a turnaround by the end of this year or the start of 2010 if President Obama stumbles? Of course. But Republicans are not yet banking on it.
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