Things I Like - Sciences

I always wanted to live in the future - during whatever time StarTrek Next Generation took place to be specific. A time when the people of Earth had not only found a way to live with each other, but were managing to get along with other beings from other worlds. Earth was not only peaceful, it seemed that there was no poverty or disease, no need to work at mind-numbing or back-breaking jobs to survive. We had somehow gotten past all the hatred and greed and stupidity that we are currently dealing with to live happily and harmoniously - our only concern how to further improve the lives of everyone on the planet.

I've always wondered what it would take to get to that point. Given our current level of development, it doesn't look like humanity is capable of doing it alone. It's going to take an outside force, something that threatens the existence of everyone on the planet in order to get us all to work together for mutual survival. Think 'Independence Day'.

This external force might actually be here today with Global Warming. Unfortunately, that's a slow and gradual threat, almost invisible and definitely not immediate. Humanity needs a clear and present danger before it's going to get worried enough to do something.

Luckily, we might have just the thing. A brief item in the Chicago Tribune last week reported the possibility of a fairly large asteroid hitting the Earth. Of course, the asteroid in question is not large enough to destroy the Earth, but at 400 meters in diameter, it is

"...bigger than the space rock that carved meteor crater in Arizona, and bigger than one that exploded in the air above Siberia in 1908, flattening thousands of square miles of forest. If an asteroid the size of 2004 MN4 hit the Earth, it would do considerable localized or regional damage."
~ Space.com

Did you catch that reference to the exploding meteor in Siberia??? Thousands of square miles flattened. That was 100 years ago in an unpopulated area. FYI, New York City covers approximately 300 square miles.

We will know for sure if this is going to be a problem in 2029 when the asteroid will overlap Earth's orbit. At that point, we'll be able to determine

"...whether Earth will escape with a near miss or will have to take swift action to avoid a blow (on the return visit in 2036) that could devastate a region as large as Europe or the Eastern United States."
~ Chicago Tribune

Of course, the scientific community doesn't want to alarm anyone so there are plenty of comforting statements like 'the rock will likely miss the planet' and 'it is very likely the risk will be reduced to zero with further observations'.

So why am I worried? Well, when the asteroid was first identified, it was calculated that the chance of impact with Earth was 1 in 44,000. Two weeks ago, these odds were reduced to 1 in 300. Later updates have brought them down to 1 in 45.

We have 20 - 27 years to pull it together people. Let's get to StarTrek.

www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-killer-asteroids-charticledec28,0,4777729.story
www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html