Thursday, January 22, 2009

Some Starting Points

TW: This piece from Time is framed as a review of Bush failures but I see it as framing a good starting point for Obama should do differently in order to move the country forward.

From Time:
"1. The Return to Deficits: Bush’s tax cuts and spending increases — and clear disdain for the pay-as-you-go approach that had brought deficits down in the 1990s — brought a return to permanent deficits.
TW: Reagan started the tax cuts at any price approach, Bush pere and Clinton slowed then reversed the approach then Bush fils blew up all the progress plus several hundred billion. If Obama can create credible plans to address entitlements in future years then he can stimulate aggressively now yet establish an economic legacy of true value.

2. Iraq: Even if you think the war did bring benefits to the U.S., they would have to be pretty gigantic to justify the costs of $1-3 trillion dollars;
TW: I defy anyone to argue that whatever "victory" or value they perceive in Iraq was worth the cost in human or monetary terms. The cost arguments cuts the legs out from under the Republican effort claim the surge as nirvana whilst ignoring alternatives (i.e. not having gone there to begin with) or the opportunity costs.

3. Tax Cuts for the Rich: Bush came to Washington facing almost diametrically opposing economic conditions, yet he offered up the same solutions as Reagan.
TW: The Republicans are fighting already to maintain the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy under the guise of not harming the economy in a recession. A two year grace period should suffice then off with their heads (taxation wise)!!

4. Financial Regulation: What is true is that most Bush-era financial regulators were less than enthusiastic about the very act of regulating, and that Bush’s “ownership society” push glossed over a lot of potential dangers.
TW: Democrats are not ideologically opposed to regulation for better or worse, the current environment plays into their hands.

5. Telling Us to Go Shopping: After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, President Bush didn’t call for sacrifice. He called for shopping.
TW: Obama in his inaugural address obviously spoke to this, but then almost all new Presidents do so, the proof will be in the pudding.

6. Energy Policy: Not much to say here, except that there wasn’t an energy policy.
TW: Bush was like all of his predecessors in not having a real policy. Would love to see Obama do something more than just push alternative research/subsidies (i.e. carbon tax) but am not confident. For him to do so will require him to really lead (i.e. expend tremendous political capital) in an effort to push real policies with teeth.

7. A State of Denial: Every Administration spins and sugarcoats the economic truth. But the Bush White House took this disingenuousness to new levels.
TW: This is one where Obama should be a huge improvement but again talk is cheap, what will happen when the rubber starts meeting the road and controversies emerge.

8. The Muddled Bailout: The main problem has been the ambivalence with which both Paulson and the White House have approached the financial rescue."
TW: Bush by the time of the bailout had nearly zero ability to communicate due to his credibility being shot to the point of non-existence. TARP etc. has too often been explained basically as something that had to be done even if the huddled masses did not understand why or how it had to be done.

Obama obviously like all new Presidents but more so enters with fresh cred. If he can merely well articulate a strong policy regardless of its specific substance he will have made huge incremental progress.
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1872229_1872230_1872231,00.html

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