TW: I posted on my view of Manhattan real estate here back in October. The money quote:
"We lived in Manhattan for three years, awed the entire time by the real estate pricing and annoyed to the point of disgust by realtors who felt we were so blessed to have the opportunity to grace their beloved island (after all we were mere refugees from the wilds of Chicago). The only positive I relish in this whole mess is many of those folks taking a bath. But dagnamit it still ain't happenin'...."
Well it is happening now. Bite me Manhattan realtors.
From Bloomberg:
"Manhattan apartment prices dropped for the first time since 2002 in the second quarter as the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. caught up to property owners in the nation’s most expensive urban market.
The median price fell 18.5 percent from a year earlier to $835,700...“The standstill that existed after Lehman Brothers has been broken, and it was the sellers that cried uncle,”
Values are falling broadly in Manhattan for the first time in the almost four-year U.S. housing recession, with declines now seen in co-operatives and condominiums of every size and price.
...The price of studio apartments declined 16 percent from a year ago to a median of $405,000...One-bedrooms dropped 17 percent to $650,000 and two-bedrooms fell 23 percent to $1.27 million. Three-bedroom units fell 37 percent to $2.35 million and four-bedrooms plummeted 47 percent to a median of $3.92 million.
...James Rosenthal didn’t want to wait. Rosenthal and his Upper West Side neighbor on Riverside Drive near 77th Street put their adjacent apartments up for sale in February 2008 for $6 million, hoping to lure a buyer that wanted to maximize the 3,800-square feet of combined space...Then Bear Stearns collapsed and the neighbors cut their price to $5.75 million, then to $4.96 million. The properties sold for $3.6 million, a 40 percent discount from the original asking price, on April 20, said Rosenthal, who is a senior vice president at New York real estate brokerage Brown Harris Stevens as well as a recent seller.
...“People can’t borrow as much,” said Prudential Douglas Elliman Chief Executive Officer Dottie Herman. “So they can’t spend as much.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=adzeEva9VcQo
Showing posts with label Schadenfreude. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Schadenfreude. Show all posts
Friday, July 3, 2009
Monday, June 22, 2009
Schadenfreude Alert: Chavez Is Struggling
TW: What goes up can go down. Hugo Chavez perhaps more than any other dictator benefited from soaring oil prices. As those prices have plunged and even with the recent partial rebound, Chavez' political strength has suffered.
A negative externality associated with fossil fuels is propping up poorly run governments, especially those hostile to the U.S. Developing policies to ensure oil prices remain stable and contained can pay benefits far beyond our balance of trade and putting more bucks into our consumers' pockets.
From Economist:
"...inflation is close to 30%, real wages are falling and welfare schemes have suffered big cuts in their budget. The mood on the streets of poorer suburbs of Caracas, the capital, is glum.
...Officially, unemployment is stable at around 7%...According to the Central Bank, the economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter compared with the same months of 2008. Construction is supposed to have expanded by 3.6%. But some economists doubt the figures.
Public investment is under strain. This month, for example, the boss of Caracas’s metro system announced a review of a new line already under construction, with the probable scrapping of two stations.
...Food consumption among poorer Venezuelans may be declining...Opinion polls reveal a sharp rise in worries over the cost of living. The government’s answer to years of persistent inflation has been price controls and Mercal, a state-owned and subsidised grocery chain that offers a limited selection of staples at discounts of up to 40%. But Mercal’s sales fell by more than 11% in the first five months of this year, partly because of store closures and distribution problems.
...The most popular of Mr Chávez’s social misiones is Barrio Adentro, which includes a network of primary-health centres initially staffed by thousands of Cuban doctors. But many of these have also closed. Poorer Venezuelans must rely on rundown public hospitals, which have been starved of funds under Mr Chávez.
...oil output has been falling. When the oil price plunged last year, its direct transfers to welfare programmes fell to $2.7 billion, from $7.1 billion in 2007.
...On the face of things, the recent recovery in the price of oil to around $70 a barrel should enable Mr Chávez to muddle through without radical shifts in policy...To sustain public spending at its peak level without deficits would have required Venezuelan oil to sell at an average of $90 a barrel last year
...Mr Chávez’s hopes of remaining in power for decades to come depend, as ever, on the price of oil."
http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13864830
A negative externality associated with fossil fuels is propping up poorly run governments, especially those hostile to the U.S. Developing policies to ensure oil prices remain stable and contained can pay benefits far beyond our balance of trade and putting more bucks into our consumers' pockets.
From Economist:
"...inflation is close to 30%, real wages are falling and welfare schemes have suffered big cuts in their budget. The mood on the streets of poorer suburbs of Caracas, the capital, is glum.
...Officially, unemployment is stable at around 7%...According to the Central Bank, the economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter compared with the same months of 2008. Construction is supposed to have expanded by 3.6%. But some economists doubt the figures.
Public investment is under strain. This month, for example, the boss of Caracas’s metro system announced a review of a new line already under construction, with the probable scrapping of two stations.
...Food consumption among poorer Venezuelans may be declining...Opinion polls reveal a sharp rise in worries over the cost of living. The government’s answer to years of persistent inflation has been price controls and Mercal, a state-owned and subsidised grocery chain that offers a limited selection of staples at discounts of up to 40%. But Mercal’s sales fell by more than 11% in the first five months of this year, partly because of store closures and distribution problems.
...The most popular of Mr Chávez’s social misiones is Barrio Adentro, which includes a network of primary-health centres initially staffed by thousands of Cuban doctors. But many of these have also closed. Poorer Venezuelans must rely on rundown public hospitals, which have been starved of funds under Mr Chávez.
...oil output has been falling. When the oil price plunged last year, its direct transfers to welfare programmes fell to $2.7 billion, from $7.1 billion in 2007.
...On the face of things, the recent recovery in the price of oil to around $70 a barrel should enable Mr Chávez to muddle through without radical shifts in policy...To sustain public spending at its peak level without deficits would have required Venezuelan oil to sell at an average of $90 a barrel last year
...Mr Chávez’s hopes of remaining in power for decades to come depend, as ever, on the price of oil."
http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13864830
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Schadenfreude Alert: Bankrupted Athletes
"“I spent a lot of money on booze, [women], and fast cars. The rest I just squandered.”--From George Best former Brit football star
TW: hit the link for list of 25 athletes who earned a lot of dough only to end up in bankruptcy court
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Schadenfreude: Tough Times For the Wealthy
From Floyd Norris at NYT:
"I point out some of the advantages that accrued to those of us who never managed to get lots and lots of dollars together.
1. We never got used to spending large bonuses. A cap of $500,000 on annual cash income would not present a serious problem in lifestyle maintenance.
2. We never got to invest in hedge funds. So we never found out out that our fund’s manager had invested in C.D.O’s, or had gotten those nice returns by funneling money to Bernie Madoff (TW: or Sir Allan Stanford)
3. We never had any reason to open a secret Swiss bank account. So we did not quake in fear when we read today that UBS has decided to tell the American tax authorities about the ways we used those accounts."
"I point out some of the advantages that accrued to those of us who never managed to get lots and lots of dollars together.
1. We never got used to spending large bonuses. A cap of $500,000 on annual cash income would not present a serious problem in lifestyle maintenance.
2. We never got to invest in hedge funds. So we never found out out that our fund’s manager had invested in C.D.O’s, or had gotten those nice returns by funneling money to Bernie Madoff (TW: or Sir Allan Stanford)
3. We never had any reason to open a secret Swiss bank account. So we did not quake in fear when we read today that UBS has decided to tell the American tax authorities about the ways we used those accounts."
Monday, January 19, 2009
Schadenfreude: A Poor Young Republican
TW: This piece in WaPo from a young Republican experiencing the bitter taste of political defeat warms my heart. As someone who came of age in the 80's when the FDR vintage Democratic party coalition finally disintegrated once and for all and the Reagan coalition emerged as the predominant American party, watching Republicans young and old squirm as they sense their own era passing is highly redemptive.
My advice is grow a thick skin because the next few years (decades) will be very annoying for you young man. Most of my friends were Reagan Republicans (of the economic sort), some of them have become older and wiser some merely quieter.
From in WaPo:
"...In the face of all this excitement, it's not an easy thing, moving on, especially for young conservatives, who don't have decades of experience behind us dealing with losses to Kennedy, Carter and Clinton.
...Hampton Williams, the head of NYU's College Republicans, is staying in town to prepare for the start of his last semester. "I have come to the conclusion that this will be the highlight of my liberal friends' lives," he told me over a flurry of Facebook exchanges. "Eight years down the road I will have a career and a family, and my liberal friends will have a faded Obama button." The slight tone of resentment did not go unnoticed.
...It was hard to find any conservatives in New York, in fact, who could put a happy spin on our grim situation. But I knew that if anyone could, it would be my friend Margaret Hoover, a political strategist whom I routinely bump into in the Fox News building. (Which, by the way, is the only refuge New York Republicans have. Walking into Fox is like slipping into a warm bath.)
...as bad as we have it in New York, my conservative friends in Washington have it worse, and many are planning their escapes. Lobbyist John Goodwin is spending four days with 10 pals in a cabin in Maryland, skiing and playing board games. J.P. Freire, the managing editor of the American Spectator, hopes to rent a lake or beach house with some buddies."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/16/AR2009011604434.html
My advice is grow a thick skin because the next few years (decades) will be very annoying for you young man. Most of my friends were Reagan Republicans (of the economic sort), some of them have become older and wiser some merely quieter.
From in WaPo:
"...In the face of all this excitement, it's not an easy thing, moving on, especially for young conservatives, who don't have decades of experience behind us dealing with losses to Kennedy, Carter and Clinton.
...Hampton Williams, the head of NYU's College Republicans, is staying in town to prepare for the start of his last semester. "I have come to the conclusion that this will be the highlight of my liberal friends' lives," he told me over a flurry of Facebook exchanges. "Eight years down the road I will have a career and a family, and my liberal friends will have a faded Obama button." The slight tone of resentment did not go unnoticed.
...It was hard to find any conservatives in New York, in fact, who could put a happy spin on our grim situation. But I knew that if anyone could, it would be my friend Margaret Hoover, a political strategist whom I routinely bump into in the Fox News building. (Which, by the way, is the only refuge New York Republicans have. Walking into Fox is like slipping into a warm bath.)
...as bad as we have it in New York, my conservative friends in Washington have it worse, and many are planning their escapes. Lobbyist John Goodwin is spending four days with 10 pals in a cabin in Maryland, skiing and playing board games. J.P. Freire, the managing editor of the American Spectator, hopes to rent a lake or beach house with some buddies."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/16/AR2009011604434.html
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Oil Schadenfreude?
TW: Plummeting oil prices help US consumers (at least in the short run as if everyone runs back to their SUVs then we can safely expect oil crunch 2.0 in 2010 or 2011). But the producers who are generally poorly governed by oligarchs with dubious competence (Chavez/Nigeria) or expensive nationalist appettites (Putin), the prices are highly problematical. The chart above (from Barry Ritholz's blog) shows estimated (I emphasize estimated because who really knows) breakeven price per bbl needed by various countries in order to fund their 2009 spending (note Russia is not on the chart but has a $70ish breakeven). With oil at $45/bbl and perhaps headed lower, they all have issues some worse than others.
Nigeria is a mess whose problems seem to get worse as oil prices go up (their fundamental problem is crime so lower prices just means less to fight over), so they are not the big problem. The Saudis/Kuwaitis/UAE have been through this before, they will have less to invest which has implications for sure but is not existential. Russia and Venezuela are the ones to watch. Putin and Chavez have built their political power on the back of high oil and bombastic nationalism, good luck to both in 2009.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
My Own Personal Schadenfreude (still waiting)
TW: We lived in Manhattan for three years, awed the entire time by the real estate pricing and annoyed to the point of disgust by realtors who felt we were so blessed to have the opportunity to grace their beloved island (after all we were mere refugees from the wilds of Chicago). The only positive I relish in this whole mess is many of those folks taking a bath. But dagnamit it still ain't happenin'....
From the True Gotham Blog of a NYC realtor:
"Making Sense of Manhattan Real Estate
The Bailout plan has been rejected (via WSJ) and it's no surprise that the stock market has plummeted on the news. So why am I still so busy? I can't answer that except by updating my current transaction activity (by current, I mean last 48 hours):
Accepted offer for 148 West 23rd Street, 11H
Multiple offers being negotiated for 88 Jane Street, 3W after 3 days on market
35 people showed for open house yesterday at 215 West 75th Street, 9C after 10% price drop and offers expected today. Price indeed overcomes all objections!
Phones ringing with appointment requests for other exclusive properties that I'm representing.
Appointments being scheduled for buyer property tours later in the week.
This is truly the most bizarre environment that I have experienced in my 16 years in the Manhattan real estate industry. I know for certain that I will likely be attacked for reporting how busy I am but it is what it is.
I leave you with the most frequent comment from open house visitors who attended my 5 open houses yesterday:
"We don't care what is going on, we need a place to live."
So with that, I'm going to make hay...and stash it in my mattress!"
From the True Gotham Blog of a NYC realtor:
"Making Sense of Manhattan Real Estate
The Bailout plan has been rejected (via WSJ) and it's no surprise that the stock market has plummeted on the news. So why am I still so busy? I can't answer that except by updating my current transaction activity (by current, I mean last 48 hours):
Accepted offer for 148 West 23rd Street, 11H
Multiple offers being negotiated for 88 Jane Street, 3W after 3 days on market
35 people showed for open house yesterday at 215 West 75th Street, 9C after 10% price drop and offers expected today. Price indeed overcomes all objections!
Phones ringing with appointment requests for other exclusive properties that I'm representing.
Appointments being scheduled for buyer property tours later in the week.
This is truly the most bizarre environment that I have experienced in my 16 years in the Manhattan real estate industry. I know for certain that I will likely be attacked for reporting how busy I am but it is what it is.
I leave you with the most frequent comment from open house visitors who attended my 5 open houses yesterday:
"We don't care what is going on, we need a place to live."
So with that, I'm going to make hay...and stash it in my mattress!"
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
European Schadenfreude
TW: I am not a fan of chest-thumping Americans. Chest-thumpers are insecure. I am, however, a nationalist. I like it when our friends and enemies are worried about US hyper-power. I would just walk softly with it while appreciating the big stick. In other words the opposite of George W. Bush, Rush Limbaugh and even at times John McCain.
It is time for a change, and thumping our chests harder is not the answer. Yes the world is not all about fighting "terror", the US needs to lessen the focus on its own navel and evolve our policies as world wealth and power dis aggregates across the world. Certainly the US must get its economic house back in order as the financial problems are not merely a "Wall Street" problem but a "Main Street" problem fueled by too much debt and too little savings.
Many of us have been embarrassed by our country's policies but not our country over the past eight years sometimes this differentiation is lost in translation. But what will happen when we are no longer embarrassed but looking for aggressive partners in place of snarkers.
The schadenfreude emerging from Europe and elsewhere relative to the US' latest crises is annoying, if expected and even understandable. If Rush Limbaugh were to comment on the attached article, he would inevitably rant for three hours about those bastard Europeans. I say lets get our act together first.
If Barack Obama becomes POTUS things will have to change on the Europeans end as well. To a certain degree they have received a pass. Due to the increasingly universal derision associated with Bush they have been able to snipe endlessly about Bush and American policies generally without offering much in the way of alternatives. Come February 2009 much will be expected not only from the US in re-building its image and policies but it will also be time for the Europeans to leave the snark behind. They will need to figure out whether they want to merely recede like meek puppies in the face of the Putin's and Taliban's of the world or engage fully alongside in the US in attacking the political, military and economic challenges we all face.
From Der Spiegel (the major German news magazine)
"George W. Bush has grown old, erratic and rosy in the eight years of his presidency. Little remains of his combativeness or his enthusiasm for physical fitness. On this sunny Tuesday morning in New York, even his hair seemed messy and unkempt, his blue suit a little baggy around the shoulders, as Bush stepped onto the stage, for the eighth time, at the United Nations General Assembly..."Absurd, absurd, absurd," said one German diplomat. A French woman called him "yesterday's man" over coffee on the East River. There is another way to put it, too: Bush was a laughing stock in the gray corridors of the UN...the ridicule was a new thing. It marked the end of respect.
And now, of all times, the world is faced with a preeminent power that no longer seems capable of leading and a US president who is not even able to unite his divided country in an hour of need...A new America is on display, a country that no longer trusts its old values and its elites even less: the politicians, who failed to see the problems on the horizon, and the economic leaders, who tried to sell a fictitious world of prosperity to Americans.
Also on display is the end of arrogance. The Americans are now paying the price for their pride.
For far too long, the Americans and the British made fun of the Germans for their risk-averse, savings-oriented mentality, says Bernd Pfaffenbach, Merkel's chief negotiator on foreign trade issues. But now the relative conservatism that Germans have shown in financial matters is paying off. "One can see that we are on a more solid base," says Pfaffenbach, who refers to the crisis as a 'purifying storm...'
...In the past, the US government's solo efforts provided the Europeans with an all-too-comfortable excuse for simply doing nothing. But that excuse is no longer valid."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-581502,00.html
It is time for a change, and thumping our chests harder is not the answer. Yes the world is not all about fighting "terror", the US needs to lessen the focus on its own navel and evolve our policies as world wealth and power dis aggregates across the world. Certainly the US must get its economic house back in order as the financial problems are not merely a "Wall Street" problem but a "Main Street" problem fueled by too much debt and too little savings.
Many of us have been embarrassed by our country's policies but not our country over the past eight years sometimes this differentiation is lost in translation. But what will happen when we are no longer embarrassed but looking for aggressive partners in place of snarkers.
The schadenfreude emerging from Europe and elsewhere relative to the US' latest crises is annoying, if expected and even understandable. If Rush Limbaugh were to comment on the attached article, he would inevitably rant for three hours about those bastard Europeans. I say lets get our act together first.
If Barack Obama becomes POTUS things will have to change on the Europeans end as well. To a certain degree they have received a pass. Due to the increasingly universal derision associated with Bush they have been able to snipe endlessly about Bush and American policies generally without offering much in the way of alternatives. Come February 2009 much will be expected not only from the US in re-building its image and policies but it will also be time for the Europeans to leave the snark behind. They will need to figure out whether they want to merely recede like meek puppies in the face of the Putin's and Taliban's of the world or engage fully alongside in the US in attacking the political, military and economic challenges we all face.
From Der Spiegel (the major German news magazine)
"George W. Bush has grown old, erratic and rosy in the eight years of his presidency. Little remains of his combativeness or his enthusiasm for physical fitness. On this sunny Tuesday morning in New York, even his hair seemed messy and unkempt, his blue suit a little baggy around the shoulders, as Bush stepped onto the stage, for the eighth time, at the United Nations General Assembly..."Absurd, absurd, absurd," said one German diplomat. A French woman called him "yesterday's man" over coffee on the East River. There is another way to put it, too: Bush was a laughing stock in the gray corridors of the UN...the ridicule was a new thing. It marked the end of respect.
And now, of all times, the world is faced with a preeminent power that no longer seems capable of leading and a US president who is not even able to unite his divided country in an hour of need...A new America is on display, a country that no longer trusts its old values and its elites even less: the politicians, who failed to see the problems on the horizon, and the economic leaders, who tried to sell a fictitious world of prosperity to Americans.
Also on display is the end of arrogance. The Americans are now paying the price for their pride.
For far too long, the Americans and the British made fun of the Germans for their risk-averse, savings-oriented mentality, says Bernd Pfaffenbach, Merkel's chief negotiator on foreign trade issues. But now the relative conservatism that Germans have shown in financial matters is paying off. "One can see that we are on a more solid base," says Pfaffenbach, who refers to the crisis as a 'purifying storm...'
...In the past, the US government's solo efforts provided the Europeans with an all-too-comfortable excuse for simply doing nothing. But that excuse is no longer valid."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-581502,00.html
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