TW: Why? No one really knows, it is a classic multi-variate phenomemon with so many causes and effects that pinning down the actual cause becomes nearly impossible. I recall reading years ago that most crime correlates tightly to the number of males turning 18. Cannot recall a better explanation although many have tried. So I chalk this up to good news without clear explanation.
From Economist:
"...The most recent report from the FBI is that during 2008 violent crime dropped 2.5% compared with 2007. Individual cities have also put out their statistics for the first half of 2009: most of America’s ten largest cities have posted drops in violent crime compared with the same period last year. That includes New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Philadelphia, San Diego and Phoenix, where people have been volubly worried about the spectre of “spillover violence” from Mexico.
This has caused some cognitive dissonance. Houston, for example, has a mayoral election coming up, and the contenders are banging on about crime...However, crime in Houston is at its lowest level in almost 40 years. The city recently applied for federal funds through a programme called Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), which would have given them money to hire more police. But Houston’s request was rejected—partly, says the current mayor, Bill White, because crime is relatively low. In effect, Houston is being punished for good behaviour.
This has caused some cognitive dissonance. Houston, for example, has a mayoral election coming up, and the contenders are banging on about crime...However, crime in Houston is at its lowest level in almost 40 years. The city recently applied for federal funds through a programme called Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), which would have given them money to hire more police. But Houston’s request was rejected—partly, says the current mayor, Bill White, because crime is relatively low. In effect, Houston is being punished for good behaviour.
Public opinion reflects the trend. For more than 15 years Steve Klineberg, a sociologist at Rice University, has quizzed Houstonians on their thoughts, fears, and feelings. He says concerns about crime usually correspond fairly well to the actual crime rates, and such is the case this year. The number of people who are very worried about crime is down, the number who are not worried is up, and for the most part people are far more preoccupied with the economy.
...Nonetheless, the 2009 numbers are clearly part of an ongoing story: after the dramatic drops of the 1990s, major crime has stayed relatively low in America’s biggest cities and has even declined a bit further here and there. Many criminologists attribute the fall to more sophisticated policing, in terms of both technology and management...His Los Angeles stint was also successful—violent crime dropped by about half while he was at the helm. Angelenos, like New Yorkers, have praised his focus on detailed surveillance data and neighbourhood policing.
...Nonetheless, the 2009 numbers are clearly part of an ongoing story: after the dramatic drops of the 1990s, major crime has stayed relatively low in America’s biggest cities and has even declined a bit further here and there. Many criminologists attribute the fall to more sophisticated policing, in terms of both technology and management...His Los Angeles stint was also successful—violent crime dropped by about half while he was at the helm. Angelenos, like New Yorkers, have praised his focus on detailed surveillance data and neighbourhood policing.
The declining rates of 2009 may help people shake off the idea that crime rises during economic downturns. Most criminologists dispute this notion, but it is still widely held and in some cases encouraged...The political potency of crime will not change. Elections have been won for years with vows to be tough on crime..."
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