The Economic Data in Perspective

McBride with his usual balanced take on recent economic releases with the graphs that keep the numbers in perspective.  The headline number shows job growth but the job drops in March/April were epically bad hence we are far far away from normal.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/08/july-employment-report-18-million-jobs.html

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/08/comments-on-july-employment-report.html

And this chart for BofA/US Treasury shows how fast the ending of the federal unemployment supplements is manifesting.  Given on-going weak aggregate demand related to Covid most of these folks will struggle to obtain employment. Without the supplements the unemployed spending will drop quickly creating further unemployment.  This would be why amidst weak aggregate demand fiscal stimulation in the form of unemployment supplements is a very proven way to mitigate recessionary spirals.

An Economics Blog Worth Following

Bill McBride at Calculated Risk plays economic numbers straight (i.e. without any apparent political or policy agenda).  Perhaps more importantly he does good graphs, which tell the story better than any narrative can.  One type of data in particular he offers is high frequency stuff (i.e. the kind reported daily or weekly as opposed to the lagged data such as GDP) which is particularly relevant as folks sort when and how our economy will re-emerge from the Covid driven slump.  If you are interested in our economic trends this is they person to track.  

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

Below are a couple of examples.

1) https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/07/six-high-frequency-indicators-for_20.html

2) These next two show our jobs situation or whether how massive a heart attack our economy has absorbed.  It is also useful to provide context when you hear a politician bragging about May or June job increases as that same politician was notably silent on the drop in March and April which was massively larger than the May and June increases.  If one has the data, then one can be on the look out for intellectual honesty, a trait lacking amongst many but not all politicians, sales persons, and managers etc.