Obama In Cairo

James Baker (fmr. Sec. of State and WH Chief of Staff for Reagan) before Obama's Cairo speech on how one pushes the ball up the hill in the Middle East:
"Well, you get there by doing what the president is doing. Show these people that we value the relationship that has existed formany years between their countries and our country. Pay them attention,which he is certainly doing. Meet with them, listen to their concerns. And explain to them the importance of U.S. policy goals. That's a way you get there. And I think it's very healthy that he is doing this."

From Craig Crawford after the speech:
"...It was a moment that made good on the promise of this man to begin the process of transforming relations and undermining terrorists.

"You have the ability to reimagine the world," Obama to young Muslims at Cairo University.

For the first time since Jimmy Carter's Camp David accords we have a president with the skills, understanding and commitment to make peace in a region that has bedeviled the world for generations. Carter's 1978 brokering of a deal between Egypt and Israel to recognize each other and pursue peace still stands as the only lasting agreement of its kind since those days.

Obama's phenomenal speech gracefully shifted from historical tensions to current conflicts between Muslim nations and the western world. Without taking sides he was not shy about noting the wrongdoing of extremists on both sides of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, for instance.
Perhaps his most controversial words at home will turn out to be calling Afghanistan a war of necessity, while labeling Iraq a "war of choice." Although Obama has said such things before, his political foes will probably seize upon his decision to say it on foreign soil.

But acknowledging that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake -- or at least seeming to say so -- will probably do more to impress the Muslim world than just about anything else in this great speech."

From Economist:
"...Mr Obama didn't shy away from the hard questions; indeed he said early and clearly that one speech wasn't going to change much, and that the problems are severe. More than anything, he was frank. Whether talking about a need for an Israeli settlement freeze, reminding the audience that America overthrew Iran's government in 1953, or taking on the Arab conspiracy theories about 9/11, he didn't shy away from the hard topics. The question isn't whether we heard anything new—nobody expected that. The speech was, in my view, honest. That, in itself, is significant for a Muslim audience too used to hearing one thing and seeing another.

...Mr Obama's speech in Cairo closed with a standing ovation, a stunning sight in itself. The knee-jerk reaction of too many Americans is to recoil at the notion of foreigners cheering an American president, as if unpopularity abroad was a sign of virile vigor. This is a new and ugly strain in conservatism. The first sentence of the first official document of the United States paid tribute to "a decent respect for the opinions of mankind". Mr Obama took that seriously today."

Egypt Lets Hope It Does Not Blow

TW: Egypt is one of those places that stays relatively calm but why is never clear. It is a dictatorship (presumably one of the reasons it is relatively calm), it has increasing Islamic ferment, it is desperately poor yet has an thin upper crust of wealthy elites and its population continues to explode amidst a very small geography of livable land.

Since the transition from British colonization to the relatively secular but highly autocratic rule of Nassar, Sadat and Mubarek, Egypt has remained a pillar of relative stability and for the past 35 years a key ally of the U.S. As a country of 80 million, sitting astride the Suez Canal and providing the most moderate voice amongst the Arabs, they have been crucial. I have met a few Egyptians both here and in Cairo over the years, they have all been great folks.

But the very concerning thing about Barnett's piece is that he frames the issues and risks yet presents no optimistic scenario. Barnett's usual best attribute is finding upsides (even with situations like Iran, Russia etc.), but not in this case, not good.

From Tom Barnett:
"Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarek's "emergency rule" is deep into its third decade, with modernizing son Gamal teed up as the pharaoh-in-waiting. While Gamal's efforts to open up Egypt's state-heavy economy have progressed nicely the past few years, so has Mubarek the Elder's repression of all political opponents, yielding the Arab world's most ardent impression of the Chinese model of development...

At 83, Hosni Mubarek is an unhealthy dictator who's achieved a stranglehold on virtually every aspect of Egyptian life, creating an immense undercurrent of popular resentment. While Washington focuses on Iran's reach for nukes and its upcoming presidential election, Egypt is more likely to be plunged into domestic political crisis on President-Elect Barack Obama's watch...

Since Cairo recognized Israel's right to exist in 1979, Washington has poured more than $50 billion into the regime's coffers, with more than half coming in military aid. As Israel remains diplomatically isolated and strategically vulnerable in the region, it seems that America has bought Egypt's stability and little else...

if Gamal [Mubarek, Hosni's son] fails the succession test, our incoming president will likely face the choice of allowing a military dictatorship to emerge or risk the country's descent into radicalization."
http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2008/dec/28/four-scary-words-egypt-after-hosni-mubarek/